Planning your year-end gold shopping in Dubai? Get ready for steeper prices

Dubai: Dubai gold prices pushed toward record territory overnight, tracking a relentless global bullion rally that has non-yielding assets firmly in favour amid Fed rate bets and fresh geopolitical flares. For UAE jewellery shoppers and small investors, retail rates are now testing the highest levels in memory, squeezing budgets while rewarding earlier buyers.

At 8 am Thursday in Dubai, 24-karat gold stood at Dh523.25 per gram, with 22-karat at Dh484.75, leaving both benchmarks inches from all-time peaks. The firmness mirrors spot gold's steady grind near $4,340 an ounce, up 0.8% Wednesday and sitting just $40 shy of October's record. (Check latest UAE gold prices here, alongside prices in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and India.)

“From a technical perspective, Gold is trading above 9 SMA and 21 SMA on the daily chart. RSI rose from yesterday’s level and is now close to 70.8. This indicates strong bullish momentum building up for gold,” said Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial. Supports cluster at $4,289 (100 SMA hourly), $4,271, and $4,256; resistance eyes $4,354, then $4,381, all-time high. November unemployment at 4.6%, versus a 4.4% forecast, lifts 2026 cut odds further.

Monthly surge shows no signs of slowing

Over the past month-plus, Dubai’s gold market has traced a clear upward path without dramatic swings. Late November saw 24-karat hover between Dh489.75 and Dh508.50, while 22-karat traded between Dh453.50 and Dh470.75. By November 30, rates firmed to Dh508.50 and Dh470.75. Early December brought mild consolidation, 24-karat fluctuating Dh503.75 to Dh507 and 22-karat near Dh466.50-Dh469.50. Momentum built from December 10, jumping to Dh506.25-Dh515.75 for 24-karat and Dh468.75-Dh477.50 for 22-karat by mid-month, then Dh518-Dh519.75 and under Dh481 through the 16th. The past two days locked in Dh523.25 and Dh484.75, the month's pinnacles and a stark signal of sustained buying pressure.

Fed cuts and Venezuela risks

Bullion's charge is driven by the Fed's third straight rate cut last week, fuelling bets on more easing despite ambiguous guidance. November CPI lands Thursday, PCE Friday, with traders eyeing a 25% chance of a January cut. President Trump pushes aggressive relief, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller signalled patience: “Because inflation is still up, we can take our time, there’s no rush to get down.”

Geopolitics adds fuel. Trump’s Venezuela tanker blockade escalates against Maduro, with US military buildup and Mexico-Brazil mediation bids heightening haven flows. Gold's yearly two-thirds surge, best since 1979, rides central bank buying and 18% ETF inflows, shrugging off a firmer dollar.

- With inputs from Bloomberg.