Oil markets split: Middle East crude surges to $131 while Brent slides to $107, WTI down to $94

Global energy markets are sending mixed signals as oil prices diverge sharply across regions, highlighting the growing impact of geopolitical tensions on supply flows.

Benchmark crudes West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude and Brent crude both declined in the latest trading session, with WTI falling 2.06% to $94.16 per barrel and Brent slipping 1.45% to about $107.1 per barrel, as of 5.02 GMT on Friday (2.05pm Tokyo, March 20, 2026).

The drop suggests short-term easing in global sentiment, possibly driven by profit-taking or expectations of temporary supply adjustments.

But the real story lies in the Middle East.

Murban crude, a key regional benchmark exported from the United Arab Emirates, surged to roughly $131 per barrel — up more than 6% in a single session.

The sharp rise underscores the tight physical supply conditions in the Gulf, where disruptions linked to ongoing tensions with Iran continue to constrain exports.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices edged slightly lower, reflecting weaker short-term demand or shifting expectations in gas markets.

The divergence between Brent/WTI and Murban points to a critical dynamic: while global benchmarks reflect broader market sentiment, regional crudes are reacting directly to physical supply risks—especially in the Persian Gulf, where a significant portion of the world’s oil flows.

Analysts say this split could widen if disruptions persist.

Traders may increasingly price in localised shortages, particularly for Asian buyers who rely heavily on Gulf crude grades.

In effect, the market is fragmenting. Paper markets are softening — but physical barrels in high-risk zones are becoming more expensive.

If tensions escalate further, this divergence could be an early warning sign of a deeper global supply crunch, say industry observers.

With domestic output covering only 40% of demand, the disruption is already driving panic buying and forcing fuel rationing across parts of the economy.

Possible alternative supplies from the US, Russia, or Norway come at higher prices and logistical limits, making rapid replacement of Gulf volumes extremely difficult.

Natural gas is down 1.23% to $3.127, as of 5.02 GMT on Friday.