US-Israel war with Iran: Brent hits $104 while WTI trades near $100, Murban slides

The oil market is experiencing extreme volatility on March 16, 2026, driven by the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

The war has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and forced production cuts across the Gulf, even as US President Donald Trump appealed for help from Nato allies and China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil transport conduit that Iran has effectively closed in retaliation for the US and Israeli war against Tehran.

Brent crude stood higher at $104.37 (+1.23, 1.28% higher (+$1.23), as of 12.55 PM Tokyo (3.55 am GMT) reflecting stronger global benchmark momentum as traders price in prolonged disruptions.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the main US benchmark, traded at $99.06 (+$0.35, up 0.37%), showing modest gains amid supply fears.

In contrast, Murban Crude (benchmark, often bypassing Hormuz via pipelines) has dropped to $114.4 (-$3.32, down 2.82%), possibly due to easing near-term panic, refiner destocking, or signals of partial supply restoration.

Natural Gas also dipped to 3.114 (-0.017, -0.54%), pressured by milder demand outlook despite energy tensions.

Divergence

This divergence highlights market uncertainty: WTI and Brent surge on geopolitical risk premiums, while Murban's pullback suggests some traders anticipate de-escalation or alternative routes mitigating losses.

Overall, prices remain elevated compared to early 2026 levels, fueling inflation concerns and stock market jitters.

Oil industry updates:

Geopolitical supply shock drives brent above $100

Brent crossed $100/barrel for the first time in years after Iranian attacks on tankers and mining in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted ~20% of global flows.

Analysts at Energy Intelligence warn of no near-term ceiling if disruptions persist, with US Marine deployments adding risk premium.

Murban premiums signal regional chaos

Murban briefly exceeded $114 amid competition for prompt non-Hormuz barrels, but recent drops reflect optimism from US Navy escorts and potential peace signals, though Gulf output cuts (Iraq/Kuwait/UAE) deepen chaos, according to OilPrice.com.

IEA emergency release vs. war rhetoric

The IEA's unprecedented 400 million barrel release aims to stabilise markets, yet escalating US rhetoric and thin spare capacity keep WTI/Brent volatile. Bloomberg price forecasts were revised upward for Q2 before potential Q4 declines if conflict ends.

Global oil prices have surged by 40 to 50 percent as Iran has choked off the waterway and attacked energy and shipping industry targets in its Gulf neighbours.

The US president had called on countries including China, France, Japan, South Korea and Britain Saturday to send ships to escort tankers through the strait, but various countries he listed have given only guarded responses.