What does Trump's second term mean for America and the region?
Trump win would likely impact the Middle East significantly, as it did in his first term
Few would dispute that the United States will face its most consequential elections in decades come 5 November. While the race for the White House between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is so far a toss-up, the outcome will be decided by voters in crucial swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada. The battle will also decide who controls Congress, who is elected state governor, and who fills key state positions.
For many of Trump’s supporters, especially the over 80 million Evangelicals who comprise one quarter of total US voters, the election is about salvaging America’s soul against what they see as an immoral and corrupt liberal/left now being represented by none other than Harris. At the heart of their struggle is saving the traditional family values, which are being undermined by the so-called “woke” culture.
But there are millions inside this cluster of avid and committed supporters who identify themselves as Christian Zionists, those who see full and unconditional support for Israel as a duty in their endeavour to fulfil Biblical prophecies concerning such eschatological themes as the “end days”, preceded by the Apocalypse and the final battle between good and evil.
Volatile Middle East and beyond
The results of the US elections will decide who will run America and, most importantly, how it will be run in the next four years. By extension, the outcome of the elections will decide what happens next in a volatile Middle East and beyond.
A second term for Trump will be seen as a triumph for an ultraconservative America, with the Evangelicals and Christian nationalists at its centre, those who used Trump’s first term to launch their plans to confront the immoral liberal left by installing conservative judges in the Supreme Court and lesser federal courts. Their most cherished victory was when the Supreme Court overturned the right of women to have an abortion in Roe vs Wade in 2022, which has been in place for nearly half a century.
However, a Trump victory will almost certainly directly affect the Middle East, just as it did in his first term. The Evangelicals may go further in pushing Trump to pursue an far-right plan. At the heart of this force are the Christian Zionists, a group represented by Christians United for Israel (CUFI), boasting millions of followers.
Trump has succeeded in changing the make-up of the Republican Party, pushing an ultraconservative Evangelical agenda to the centre that allowed him to appoint conservative judges in the Supreme Court, where they are now a majority, and the lower courts. He has portrayed himself as a tool to fight the corrupt and immoral Democrats and the liberals, thus endearing himself to Christian nationalists.
Christian Zionism predates Jewish Zionism of the 1800s by almost 200 years. It was founded in Europe, and at its heart, it believed that Jews must return to the Holy Land for the second coming of Christ to take place. The first English pilgrims landing in the New World were Puritans, who also believed in the literal interpretation of the scriptures, especially with regard to the prophecies of the Book of Revelations.
The infusion of Biblical doctrines concerning Israel in US politics began after Israel was created in 1948 but gained momentum after the conquering of the Old City of Jerusalem in 1967. The most notable embrace by the Republican Party of such dogmas occurred during Ronald Reagan’s presidency when he allied himself with Baptist Rev. Jerry Falwell Sr., who founded the Moral Majority.
Likud leader Menachem Begin, who defeated Labor in 1978, realised the importance of striking an alliance between the Evangelical movement in America and Zionist Israel in the early 1980s.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu understands the most intricate nuances of American politics and is using the Evangelical movement to justify his genocidal war on Gaza and beyond. He understands that the Republican Party is now influenced by Evangelicals who believe in supporting Israel’s right to exist no matter the cost.
Wave of nationalism
Trump, who has never portrayed himself as overtly religious, has nonetheless positioned himself as the champion of a wave of Christian nationalism sweeping across certain segments of the United States.
This movement is part of a far-right push that sees Trump as more than just a presidential candidate; he has become a symbol, a rallying figure whose goals extend far beyond merely securing the White House in November. The far-right factions that support him have a larger vision in mind — one that aims to reshape the foundational secular character of America.
This vision, however, presents a monumental challenge, one that may transcend the outcome of the upcoming election. With the United States more politically divided than ever, the ambition to remould the nation’s secular principles stirs deep-seated anxieties.
How such a transformation could even be pursued within the current climate of intense polarisation is a haunting question. No matter who ultimately assumes the presidency, the implications of this ideological shift will echo far beyond the immediate future, affecting the very identity and future direction of America.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.