As Israel’s war on Gaza enters its 11th month, there is little to indicate that a ceasefire deal is imminent. The US, which is working with Egypt and Qatar, is hinting that a take-it-or-leave-it final offer will soon be presented to Hamas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Judging from the outcome of months of failed negotiations, an agreement on a permanent truce and a hostage release remains unlikely.
Israel launched an all-out war on Hamas in retaliation for the lethal attack on 7 October, which left Israelis in shock. Netanyahu’s far-right government promised vengeance and the destruction of Hamas. Tel Aviv launched a massive military campaign that has so far resulted in the killing of more than 41000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and the destruction of over 70 per cent of the enclave’s infrastructure.
The brutality of this war, especially against civilians, has landed Israel before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on charges of genocide, while the International Criminal Court (ICC) is now pondering issuing arrest warrants against Netanyahu and his war minister.
Western governments, which had initially supported the military campaign as an expression of Israel’s right to self-defence, are now calling for an immediate ceasefire and the unconditional release of Israeli hostages.
World public opinion has shifted, with millions protesting Israel’s “genocidal” war while pressuring their governments to suspend weapons delivery and going as far as to call for imposing sanctions against Israel.
In addition, public support for the war in Israel is receding as tens of thousands of Israelis take to the streets weekly, demanding a deal that would free the hostages while blaming Netanyahu for derailing a last-minute agreement.
Hamas claims that it agreed to a deal last July based on President Joe Biden’s three-phase plan. Netanyahu has been adding new conditions ever since; the latest and most controversial revolves around his insistence on keeping his troops in control of the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border.
Multiple raids against Palestinians
In recent weeks, Israel has launched multiple raids against Palestinian refugee camps, mainly in the northern West Bank, killing scores of so-called militants and destroying vital infrastructure. Israeli officials have vowed to turn the West Bank into another Gaza, while extremists have repeated threats to expel West Bank Palestinians.
More than 600 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since last October. Meanwhile, the Israeli government has approved the expropriation of thousands of hectares of West Bank lands and sanctioned the building and expansion of illegal colonies there.
There is a strong link between what Israel is doing in Gaza and its encroachment on lands in the occupied West Bank. This is no longer about ending the war in Gaza and returning to the status quo ante, whatever that status was.
This is about executing a grand far-right scheme to occupy most of Gaza permanently while confiscating and annexing what remains of West Bank territory. Netanyahu’s extremist ministers are working to defund the PA while stripping it of any authority over remaining territories.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has effectively annexed Area C, about 60 per cent of its total area in the West Bank. Now Netanyahu is moving to annex all of the Jordan Valley, thus cutting off what remains of Palestinian towns and cities from Jordan.
Israel’s National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has armed tens of thousands of illegal settlers and is backing them as they wage a campaign of terror against Palestinians in the West Bank. He has allowed settlers to breach the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound and hinted that a synagogue must be built there.
Netanyahu has promised to prevent the creation of a Palestinian state and considers all of the occupied West Bank as part of Israel. Now, his supporters want to expel Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza and unleash a new wave of illegal settlements over all that remains of Palestinian territories.
As to the fate of over five million Palestinians in the occupied territories, Netanyahu has no answer. But his extremist partners openly talk about displacement and transfer to neighbouring countries.
In parallel to the systematic destruction of Gaza, Israel is now focusing on eliminating Palestinian refugee camps in the West Bank. The endgame is a horrific and classical example of ethnic cleansing. Netanyahu wants to export the Palestinian demographic problem to neighbouring Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon.
Both countries have openly rejected such displacement, with Jordan declaring that transfer is tantamount to a war declaration.
This is the Israeli far-right plan, and it is being executed under the guise of fighting a self-defence war in Gaza. This is one main reason why Netanyahu is foiling any ceasefire deal while dragging the war into November, hoping that the former president, Donald Trump, will win a second term and facilitate such a plan.
This is no longer about Gaza. It’s not only about the Palestinians and their fate. It’s about the region’s stability. Netanyahu has chosen a moment when the US is divided and declining. And he has chosen a moment when the world is polarised, and the international order is about to collapse.
He must not be allowed to carry on with a scheme that will only drive the region to the brink.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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