Trump's victory could reshape global climate efforts
Second Trump term threatens US leadership in climate action, impacting the world’s future
As the 2024 US presidential election nears, the world is holding its breath. A potential victory for Donald Trump brings with it not just implications for US politics but for the entire planet, particularly in the fight against climate change.
With Kamala Harris providing a strong challenge, the race is tightening, but Trump’s enduring appeal in critical swing states makes him a formidable contender. As observers in the US and Europe debate what a second Trump presidency could mean for American democracy and Nato, the rest of the world is concerned about its impact on global issues, particularly climate action.
If Trump wins, it would have an immediate effect on the COP29 climate talks scheduled to take place in Baku shortly after the election. Todd Stern, the former US climate negotiator under the Obama administration, has warned that a Trump victory would leave a leadership vacuum in the fight against climate change, severely diminishing US influence. Without strong American participation, global climate negotiations could be weakened at a time when urgent action is needed.
The timing of the election is crucial. The world is experiencing record-breaking heat, with a 90% chance that 2024 will surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record. Extreme weather events have become the norm, from wildfires to floods, making parts of the planet increasingly uninhabitable.
While there is some positive momentum — solar and wind energy are expanding rapidly in regions like California, parts of Europe, and China — the US election could either accelerate or halt this progress. A Trump win would signal a sharp regression in the global effort to combat climate change.
Eroding environmental protections
During his first term, Trump demonstrated a complete disregard for environmental concerns. He withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, rolled back critical environmental regulations, and prioritised fossil fuel extraction by the US over long-term sustainability.
His policies actively undermined the global fight against climate change, focusing on short-term economic gains at the cost of planetary health. A second term would almost certainly mean further weakening of environmental protections, with devastating long-term consequences for both the US and the world.
Trump during his first term removed restrictions on fossil fuel production, opened federally protected lands for extraction, and dismantled regulations aimed at reducing emissions. His administration ignored the scientific consensus on climate change and undermined international efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
A new UN report warns that current climate policies are projected to result in global warming exceeding 3°C (5.4°F) by 2100, more than double the 1.5°C target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The global emissions must be cut drastically by 2030 to avoid catastrophic consequences, including rising sea levels, extreme weather, and large-scale displacement. The stakes in the 2024 election are extraordinarily high, and a second Trump presidency could severely hinder global efforts to address climate change.
While climate change is missing from the US election discourse, the outcome could have profound global consequences.
One of Trump’s most damaging actions during his first term was withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate Agreement. This international accord is crucial to keeping global temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius, and US participation is vital for its success.
Although President Biden rejoined the agreement, Trump has vowed to pull the US out again if re-elected. Such a move would undermine global cooperation on climate action, embolden other major polluters, and weaken the resolve of nations committed to reducing emissions.
A critical juncture
Trump has consistently dismissed renewable energy sources like wind and solar, instead focusing on rolling back environmental protections and regulations. A second term would likely see him continue this aggressive agenda, further dismantling key climate regulations and weakening institutions like the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
Without American leadership, the global transition to renewable energy could slow, and the window of opportunity to prevent the worst impacts of climate change would close further. The consequences of inaction would be felt worldwide, with low-income countries and vulnerable populations suffering the most.
At this critical juncture, the 2024 US election is not just a political contest — it is a battle for the future of the planet. The potential environmental damage of a second Trump term extends far beyond American borders. His policies would weaken global climate action, and significantly set back efforts to combat climate change.
Thus, the 2024 election is a defining moment, not just for the US, but for the entire planet. The stakes are existential, and the decisions made in this election will shape the future of our climate — and our world — for generations to come.