Syria needs national reconciliation for stability
The country faces a new reality and everyone must prioritise nation over ideology
No one would have predicted the speedy fall of the regime of President Bashar Assad. The lighting takeover by the rebels of the country’s three main cities in less than ten days, culminating on Sunday with the fall of Damascus, has stunned all major players in the war-torn country.
But while Mohammad Al-Joulani, the head of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) has sent a message of reconciliation and unity ahead of the regime’s collapse, it is way too early to say that Syria is on its way to becoming a pluralistic country.
In retrospect, one must be reminded that there are no coincidences in geopolitics, and nothing happens in a vacuum. So, the surprise offensive by HTS and other opposition groups, which resulted in the speedy takeover of Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, in a matter of hours, should not be viewed as a separate and isolated incident.
Less than a week after Hizbollah agreed to a ceasefire deal in Lebanon, after sustaining heavy losses at the level of its leadership, the Turkish-backed opposition, which has been in control of most of the Idlib province for years, launched their major offensive against Syrian regime forces.
US President-elect Donald Trump has tweeted that the US should not get involved in the fracas. The Biden administration said it had nothing to do with the recent events.
It is clear that there are more questions than answers at this stage. Syria had a vibrant democratic system until a series of military coups, concluding with Hafez Assad’s 1970 takeover, ended what was then seen as a promising experiment in postcolonial nation-building.
Bashar Assad, a Western-educated doctor who took over following the death of his father in 2000, tried to open a new chapter with his people in what was called the Damascus Spring. It was a short-lived let-off.
So, when peaceful protests erupted in Syria in 2011, the regime resorted to violence, which led to armed resistance and a bloody civil war with no conclusive end.
The civil war has been largely dormant for more than six years. While the UN has been unable to negotiate a deal, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and representatives of the Syrian opposition were able to reach a truce through the Astana process, which was launched in 2017.
Return of displaced citizens
The Astana process was successful in adopting several agreements and understandings, especially concerning the implementation of a ceasefire, the creation of de-escalation zones, laying the groundwork for a political resolution to the conflict, including discussions about a new constitution and free elections in Syria, addressing the urgent need for humanitarian assistance and finally launching talks about the Kurdish issue and the role of the US in Syria.
Unfortunately, Assad failed to proceed with negotiations regarding the political framework, especially about adopting a new constitution in preparation for elections. The stagnant situation did not help with other issues, such as humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and the return of displaced citizens.
Assad failed to reciprocate to Arab countries overtures. Southern Syria had become a major hub for the manufacturing of synthetic drugs and smuggling.
The Syrian situation is one of the most difficult in the region today. There are many state and non-state actors on the ground. The US has a military presence in the oil-rich eastern Syria, presumably to fight Daesh and support the YPG.
Turkey has created buffer zones and established bases to circumvent expansion by the YPG but also to protect HTS and other rebel factions, including remnants of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in Idlib.
Meanwhile, Israel has been waging air strikes against Iranian and pro-Iran forces and military depots in Syria for more than two years. It will observe the events unfolding in Damascus and intervene to protect its interests if need be.
In addition to these players, there are thousands of foreign fighters in Syria who are associated with many non-state actors, such as Daesh, which remains active in some parts of eastern and southern Syria.
The ramifications of the war between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel have a significant spillover effect on Syria. Israel is determined to cut off any routes of Iranian arms supply to Hezbollah through Syria and Iraq. Netanyahu had warned Assad recently that he’s “playing with fire” concerning allowing Iran to send weapons to Hezbollah.
Now, with the humbling of Hezbollah, the fall of Assad, and the withdrawal of Iran from Syria, the so-called resistance axis is all but gone.
Syria now needs national reconciliation and a broad consensus to safeguard its territorial integrity. It faces a new reality, and the biggest challenge is for the opposition to put the interests of the nation above its own ideological biases.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.