Fasten your seat belts because the world is in for a rough ride. Donald Trump’s miraculous comeback will be studied by pundits and historians for a long time. But while world leaders ponder what a second term presidency for Trump will look like and, more importantly, how it will affect their region, there is an eerie feeling that Trump 2.0 will be nothing like what we have seen and experienced during his first term.
Trump has redefined the rules of American politics in so many ways, and there is no going back. His spectacular takeover of the Republican Party has reconstructed the party of Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan beyond recognition. It is now his party, made according to his image, and even when he is gone four years from now, that party will continue to be his and his alone.
As his team forms, the contrasts between his first and second terms become more defined. This time, passing the MAGA test is the only one that matters. Trump is putting loyalty above experience, as has become evident from his shocking choice of Secretary of Defense: an ultraconservative, anti-woke culture, war veteran, and Fox News host Pete Hegseth. The same is with his pick of UN ambassador: Elise Stefanik, a House Republican and one of Trump’s loyalist supporters.
Trump's foreign policy
Trump will stick to his MAGA agenda this time, even if some of his choices for key positions will displease and disappoint a key segment of US voters who helped him clinch his historic victory, such as the Arab-American voters in Michigan.
The same is said about his nomination of former Arkansas Governor and Evangelical proxy Mike Huckabee as US ambassador to Israel. Huckabee’s record on Israel’s occupation of the West Bank is dismal.
It goes without saying that while Trump will be focusing more on his domestic agenda, which is expected to unleash massive restructuring of the executive branch, among other things, his foreign policy will be equally controversial and unsettling for many regions of the world.
Trump will see to it that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wraps up the Gaza and Lebanon wars before he is sworn in on 20 January. A ceasefire in Lebanon within weeks is more likely to take place considering the heavy Israeli losses in South Lebanon and the fact that Israel has not been able to neutralise Hezbollah’s missile and drone attacks despite taking out its top leadership and causing heavy damage in Beirut and other Lebanese towns and cities.
While the party remains defiant, it is more willing today to accept a truce that delivers minimum compromises.
Bumpy ride for America’s allies and foes
Gaza is much more complex. Netanyahu’s intentions for Gaza remain ambiguous with no clear day-after scenario. It is clear that he wants to see a permanent military presence there while dividing the enclave for easier control. The complete pacification of Gaza; total defeat of Hamas, will not happen in the remaining time. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has lost all influence on Netanyahu.
A complete and total end of the war between now and January is unlikely to happen, although the more sinister part of Israel’s scheme of depopulating northern Gaza appears to be working despite the unimaginable human suffering of almost 75,000 Palestinians still trapped there.
Aside from this, Trump will amplify pressure on Iran, short of waging an all-out war at first, to contain Tehran and its proxies while making sure to circumvent any plans to acquire a nuclear bomb. How he will do that is unclear. Netanyahu, who convinced Trump to drop out of the nuclear deal, would love to see the US carry out a military strike to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump, who vowed to end America’s involvement in military adventures, is not likely to entertain the idea.
Trump hopes that his involvement in the Middle East will be short and successful so that he can move on to his main foreign policy objective, which is to contain China.
Other policies, such as ending the war in Ukraine, will pose a challenge, especially for his European partners, who are now exhausted and apprehensive about the future of the US-European alliance, Nato, and his threat to impose heavy tariffs on imports.
Trump 2.0 promises to be a bumpier ride for America’s allies and foes. However, despite all the early indications based on his key picks, Trump remains unpredictable.
So far, his choices for the UN and Israel envoys has been a cause of worry. The Israel-Palestine conflict has haunted the Middle East for decades, and while Netanyahu seeks an unconventional, not to mention an illegal, conclusion to this conflict, people of the region know better.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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