Why the Constitution Club fight matters in Indian politics

The Constitution Club of India — a club dedicated to Members of Parliament (who don’t have enough privileges already) and other members such as top officials and judges, located in Lutyens’ Delhi — went to the polls recently. And, it was a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) versus BJP fight between Rajiv Pratap Rudy, BJP veteran and Member of Parliament from Saran (and also a commercial pilot), and Sanjeev Balyan, two-term BJP MP.

The fight for the Constitution Club, some leaders say, was more keenly contested than many a battle for the Lok Sabha elections. At this point, my beloved readers of SWAT Analysis must be mystified: why should a club election concern and detain us at all? Because it is a huge pointer to two things: one, the opaque politics of internal BJP which is constantly guarded from journalistic scrutiny, and two, how the opposition, when it gets its act together, can actually pull off a coup against the hyper-dominant BJP.

Before I give you the juicy behind-the-scenes of the big fight, some of the broad takeaways in the foreground. A viral handshake between Rudy — considered a misfit in the Modi BJP and a rebel who was never made minister despite being a veteran — and Rahul Gandhi, leader of the opposition outside Parliament, with Gandhi asking “how is your election going,” showcased public solidarity with Rudy in front of waiting reporters. Rudy took his cue and mounted a vigorous campaign among opposition MPs, which also saw the Congress’s ubiquitous Rajeev Shukla elected as part of the Rudy panel.

Another vignette: Union Home Minister of India Amit Shah stepping out to vote for a club election, followed by Sonia Gandhi. The optics of the two seniormost leaders signalling public support to their candidates says a lot. Rarefied politics is quiet signals and signs, not loud screaming public meetings.

Now to the background. While Rudy is a holdover from the Atal Behari Vajpayee BJP, Balyan is a firm Shah favourite. In 2014, alongside Shah, he was instrumental in the Muzaffarnagar unrest among Jats in Uttar Pradesh, which saw them switch support to the BJP. Balyan, a big Jat leader from UP, was twice a Modi minister and was often sent by Shah to manage big contests. Rudy, meanwhile, hails from Bihar.

This time around in 2024, Balyan faced defeat in his bastion of Muzaffarnagar. The loss was attributed to many factors, including the anger of traditional Rajput voters of the BJP and the near revolt of Sangeet Som Sardhana, BJP MLA, against Balyan.

Senior BJP leaders speak in hushed whispers that the Constitution Club contest was actually a proxy battle between Shah and powerful Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, a known votary of the Thakur lobby in the BJP. It is undisputed that all Thakur leaders across party lines voted for Rudy, and that Yogi and Shah, who don’t exactly get along, were working the phone lines for their respective candidates. “Chanakya (as Shah is called in the BJP) ensured that all ministers and MPs should vote for Balyan. Yet the Rajputs revolted,” said a top BJP Rajput leader who owes allegiance to Yogi Adityanath. “Just as Balyan was made to lose in Muzaffarnagar, he was made to lose here,” said another BJP MP.

Balyan also had a vocal campaigner in Nishikant Dubey, a controversial figure whose support seemed to backfire. He attacked Rudy and had publicly criticised Yogi Adityanath. His penchant for publicity seemed to harm his candidate, and his criticism of Yogi upset the top brass. Still, Balyan had Union ministers campaigning for him, even entering the counting centre in the club. Many hush-hush dinners were held by both factions to curry support, with future promises made. For the first time, it is believed that senior BJP leaders spoke to top opposition leaders.

So what does this all mean? The background is the clear succession battle between Shah and Yogi to be the designated heir to Modi eventually, coupled with the public hints of the paterfamilias of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) about retirement. Yogi Adityanath is young, barely 50, and has the cadre behind him — just like Modi was once the Hindu hriday samrat (“emperor of Hindu hearts”).

The delay in the decision and announcement of the next BJP president tells its own story, with the RSS asserting its right as a stakeholder and not being a rubber stamp for the inseparable Modi-Shah duo. The fight tells us that all is not well in the internal dynamics of the Sangh Parivar.

Finally, the biggest takeaway for the opposition: if you actually get together and work on the ground, you can win — so what if it’s a club election. Unity matters.

And do remember, as the BJP announces its candidate for Vice-President, C.P. Radhakrishnan, you were the first to know it would not be Shashi Tharoor, as so many political pundits claimed.