The Thackeray reset: All roads lead to BJP

As the latest expected blockbuster released on Friday does disappointing business, Mumbai is gripped by — and in thrall to — the anticipated reunion of the Thackeray cousins, almost a Deewar redux.

While the reunion may surprise Mumbai, it won’t surprise the savvy readers of SWAT Analysis, who were in the know months ago that Uddhav Thackeray and his cousin Raj Thackeray — both with diminishing brands and having flirted with every political ideology and party — saw merit in joining forces.

While Maharashtra is transfixed, the real story lies elsewhere — and you’ll read it here first.

So let’s unravel and unpick the politics behind the dramatic rapprochement of the estranged cousins. The two announced a joint campaign against the imposition of Hindi in schools as a third language, besides Marathi and English. Much newsprint was spilled and trees sacrificed as the development was analysed threadbare. Sanjay Raut, Rajya Sabha Member of Parliament from the Uddhav faction, announced a united march by the cousins and rubbed it in via a social media post which proclaimed that “Thackeray was the brand.” The march was planned for July 5.

The very next moment, the Maharashtra government, led by BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis, caved in — publicly withdrawing the directive to make Hindi compulsory in schools.

Raut crowed, “this is a victory for Marathi unity. The fear of Thackeray factions coming together. But, something else is quietly in the works. Thackeray is still the brand.”

The takeaway from Raut’s hyperbole — “brand Thackeray” — is that something else is cooking. Let’s figure out what exactly.

To understand, one has to look at the Fadnavis-led BJP government. This time around, on the strength of numbers, Fadnavis pole-vaulted to the chief minister’s post after having been Deputy CM to Eknath Shinde, who leads the breakaway group of the Sena. The other leg in the government is Ajit Pawar, also Deputy CM and nephew of Sharad Pawar, who broke his uncle’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Both Shinde and Pawar share one political dream: to somehow occupy the CM’s chair in Mantralaya and live in Varsha, the CM’s official residence.

The problem is, Fadnavis is very jealous of his hard-won power and extremely reluctant to share it, controlling all important matters via his trusted bureaucrats with an iron hand. Fadnavis’s earlier stint as CM ensured he is deeply connected with the officials, and he doesn’t even want to be the President of the BJP — such is his obsession with the CM job, say top sources.

Both Shinde and Pawar feel extremely cheated. They have the title, but are literally powerless — unable to help their supporters and parties — with the crucial, much-delayed BMC elections coming up. At stake is not just a municipality, but a budget of ₹500 billion.

So, the current players who make up the Maharashtra government — except the BJP — are unhappy.

The BJP is clear: it wants power in Maharashtra at any cost, and will smash and grab any party to achieve it. It was earlier partners with the united Shiv Sena for over two decades, until Uddhav broke away to form an unlikely alliance with the Congress and Pawar, a coalition conjured up by Pawar’s magic. The BJP retaliated by breaking both parties, tying up with the factions.

Now, a huge reset is underway in Maharashtra’s politics and parties. The INDIA Alliance is nearly done and dusted, and both Uddhav and Pawar have realised that the Congress, under the current Gandhi dispensation, does not have the will to power. Ajit Pawar, feeling outplayed by the BJP, has been sending feelers to his uncle, suggesting that if they come back together, they would be in a better position to bargain with the BJP. Pawar is the consummate politician, ensuring that even his left hand doesn’t know where his right hand has been dealing political cards.

Currently, Pawar wants to ensure that his only child, daughter Supriya Sule, is well settled in the family business of politics. Sule, in fact, is the only obstacle to a reunion between uncle and nephew, as the NCP cadre has made it clear to “saheb” that it wants to be where the power is.

Sule doesn’t want to tie up with the BJP, and yet, despite that, she was included in the all-party delegation that went overseas to explain Operation Sindoor. Sule has many friends in the BJP — such as Anurag Thakur — and they are all working on her.

The BJP giving the Thackeray cousins a win so quickly by caving on Hindi, and including Sule in the important delegation, has an element of pre-decided theatre. Uddhav Thackeray has also realised that his core cadre — the Shiv Sainiks of the shakhas — did not like his alliance with the Congress, an ideological somersault the cadre could not stomach. Raj Thackeray has been promiscuous in his political alliances ever since he quit Balasaheb Thackeray’s Sena in a huff. Raj has also realised he doesn’t have the stomach for the hard grind of building a party from scratch. Uddhav has to ensure the political future of his son, Aditya Thackeray, while Raj has to ensure that his son, Amit — who finished third in his political debut in the Mahim constituency — at least wins an election.

So, much like Pawar’s predicament today — of whether to merge his faction with his nephew’s — and Uddhav and Raj’s political dilemma, all routes lead back to the BJP to stay politically relevant.

Uddhav and Raj want to own the nativist Marathi manoos plank, fighting for the sons of the soil of Maharashtra—which will be their calling card in the BMC elections. Pawar has an excellent personal equation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who even awarded him a Padma Vibhushan and visited his pocket borough, Baramati. The BJP wouldn’t mind a reshuffling of its partners, as it is fed up with Eknath Shinde’s complaints.

If Shinde is out of power, the Sena cadre — which wants Uddhav with the BJP — will go back home to Matoshree.

All of this will play out before the BMC elections. Watch this space.