BRICS: New world order or a diplomatic balancing act?

The message to the world at the closing of the 16th BRICS summit at Kazan, Russia, was unmistakable. With the presence of leaders from as many as 36 countries, in addition to the UN Secretary General, this was the biggest ever BRICS grouping.

Four new members, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE, joined. Others are expected to follow and are waiting in line, as it were. Once dismissed as a non-starter, BRICS has come a long way. It actually signals a new multipolar world order, with the West, led by the United States, no longer its fulcrum or pivot.

Not only were three of the world’s biggest powers, China, Russia, and India, prominent, but so were Brazil, South Africa, and the other new members. Turkey, it is reported, was interested in membership.

The official summit photo included the UAE President His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian and Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira.

Yes, unlike Nato, BRICS is not a strategic alliance. True. But that did not prevent the word “strategic” being used several times — both by members and by observers and analysts. The reason is simple. The sheer economic clout of the group, with member countries making up 3.3 billion, can no longer be ignored.

Smoke and mirrors of international power play

Indeed, a common currency, passionately advocated by President Lula, was the buzz before the summit began. Though it was not officially proposed this time, the process of de-dollarisation is already underway, with member countries stockpiling gold to shore up their currencies.

In addition to its economic clout and demographic heft, the optics of the camaraderie between President Xi of China, Prime Minister Modi of India, and Russian host, President Putin could not be ignored.

For one, regardless of Western sanctions and US President Joe Biden’s attempts to turn Russia into a pariah state, the repeated handshakes and hugs showed how miserably such stratagems had failed. The world may not be comfortable with Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. But this does not mean that it has fallen in line behind the United States either.

India and China cosying up was also meant to send a message to the US. Their progress on the border dispute has been dismissed by some as disadvantageous to India. Does the end of the border standoff mean that India has caved in just to spite the US for pushing the Khalistan bogey directly and through its proxies such as Canada?

Whatever the truth behind the smoke and mirrors of international power play, there can be little doubt that the Biden administration has alienated many a friend in addition to further antagonising old foes.

If nothing else, the BRICS summit highlighted the fact that the US can no longer ride roughshod over the rest of the world as it used to after the end of the Cold War. As to whether Cold War 2.0 has started and if the BRICS bloc will line up behind China, that is an entirely different matter.

Instead, it is highly likely that the members will return to their customary positions and patterns of behaviour based on long-standing interests and alliances. But Western-led models and institutions of world governance, it is clear, are not the only ones available to choose from.

On the contrary, there is a growing disaffection with these mechanisms, whether political or economic. India, for one, is sure to use the forum to lobby for permanent membership in the UN Security Council even while pushing for the group to be an alternative to the UN.

The Middle East has also emerged as a major hub of BRICS, with Egypt, the overwhelmingly largest Arab country in terms of population, now joined by UAE and, possibly, in the future by Saudi Arabia, which has been invited, and with Iran already inducted.

With Ethiopia as its new Eastern anchor and South Africa, the continent’s biggest economy already a member since 2010, the “S” in the acronym, and the first one to be admitted after the original group was formed in 2006, BRICS is sure to make further progress in Africa too.

In the long run, India too cannot play the balancing act forever. It needs US technology too. In that sense, BRICS remains the low-hanging fruit for member countries while their real challenges remain outside of this scope.