There is almost a unanimous agreement among many US specialists that the most appropriate word to describe US President Donald Trump’s first year in office is chaos! While the Obama administration lacked a comprehensive strategy towards the Middle East, the Trump administration in its first year, has baffled allies with its unpredictability and uncertainty.
One year in office, the Trump administration has not articulated a coherent strategy towards the Middle East, beyond the “America First” agenda and “Make America Great Again” campaign slogan. Last week, Trump touted in Davos his achievements and argued “America first does not mean America alone”, but that has not reassured the worried and sceptical world. There is a predominant view that Trump is more of an isolationist than an internationalist.
One of the glaring handicaps of the Trump administration is its over-representation of generals and the lack of professional foreign policy experts in his team including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and his permanent representative at the UN, Nikki Halley. A study by The Century Foundation: argued that “Donald Trump has spared none of the sacred cows of American foreign policy during his first year in the White House, even if his sometimes radical rhetoric hasn’t translated into major policy shift. Meanwhile, the world order has reached a turning point, as rising powers such as China and Russia jostle to supplant American leadership. Trump seems to agree in principal that America ought to walk away from its historic role as global arbiter.” The first year of Trump has witnessed an almost total dismantling of the Obama achievements. At home it was from Obamacare to Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (Daca) and abroad it was from the Iran nuclear deal, to the threat of war with North Korea and unravelling the Middle East peace process and the two-state solution which has been going nowhere.
The first year of the Trump administration has been consumed with controversial decisions enforcing the “America first agenda”. No wonder the US has sunk in international opinion polls. A new Pew Research Centre survey spanning 37 nations, a median of just 22 per cent has confidence in Trump to do the right thing when it comes to international affairs. This stands in contrast to the final years of Barack Obama’s presidency, when a median of 64 per cent expressed confidence in Trump’s predecessor to direct America’s role in the world. Global approval ratings for the US stood at 49 per cent in Obama’s first year, (rising again to 48 per cent in Obama’s last year) before plunging to 30 per cent after a year of Trump.” From Nato to China and from North Korea to Jerusalem, the US allies are bewildered and its foes, led by North Korea, are emboldened.
The Obama administration has bequeathed the Trump administration a mess in the Middle East. The Trump administration’s erratic behaviour on many flash points, with the exception of tough rhetoric against Iran, and eliminating Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) in Iraq and Syria, albeit at a heavy human toll, seems to continue the Obama administration’s failed strategy in the Middle East.
In an unprecedented, provocative move, and against an almost international condemnation and repudiation which angered 1.7 billion Muslims all over the world and exacerbated tensions, the Trump administration torpedoed the peace process, by recognising occupied Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and pledging to move the US embassy to occupied Jerusalem by the end of 2019, doing away with two decades of Democratic and Republican administrations alike! The US went a step further, punishing the Palestinians by cutting off half of the UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) funds totalling $65 million (Dh238.6 million) and threatening more cuts if the Palestinians do not agree to negotiate with the Israelis! Negotiate over what?
Regionally, the US has been viewed as a power in retreat opting for retrenchment over activism. This has allowed thus Russia to crawl back to the Middle East and to have the final say in Syria, trespassing into a traditionally US sphere of influence under the guise of fighting terrorism. Iran has been able to advance its sectarian hegemonic project; its crescent has become a full moon. Very little seems to have changed over the first year of the Trump administration, beyond the tough rhetoric and vowing to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power and stop its terrorist activities. Speaking loudly and carrying a big stick, and slapping Iran with sanctions, but little has changed to deter Iran’s bellicose and destabilising activities. Iran under the Obama administration bragged of controlling four Arab capitals through its proxies (Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut and Sana’a) and meddled undeterred in many countries through spy cells and sectarianism, little has changed under the Trump administration.
The view from the region regarding Trump’s first year in office is more negative than positive or optimistic. After few days in office Trump imposed a Muslim ban on citizens of seven predominantly Muslim countries from travelling to the US ! Followed in March by an electronics ban onboard flights from 10 Arab and Middle East airports, all of them are US allies. The Trump administration unwittingly picked up a fight with its Nato ally — Turkey, by openly arming YPG, which Turkey considers a terrorist organisation — and a direct threat to its national security. Turkey launched last week a military campaign dubbed “Olive Branch” to drive out the PYG from Afrin and Manbij accusing the US of assisting a terrorist organisation and failing to live up to its vows of disarming the PYG and removing them from Manbij after the defeat of Daesh, which the Trump administration has failed to do.
Finally, the Trump administration dealing with the Gulf crisis between Qatar and three of its GCC members in addition to Egypt has not helped in mitigating and resolving the most denting and serious crisis in the GCC, and helping the Kuwaiti meditation efforts, which if it remains unresolved might fragment and deal a major blow for the most successful regional Pan-Arab alliance, with serious ramifications for US interests.
The Trump administration needs to have a well thought-out vision and a comprehensive strategy in the Middle East to safeguard its own interests and that of its allies. It can’t be a destabilising force, but a force which deters foes and reassures allies beyond bombastic rhetoric and exacerbating tension in a region that has witnessed more than its fair share of inconsistencies, upheavals and violence.
Professor Abdullah Al Shayji is a professor of Political Science and the former chairman of the Political Science Department, Kuwait University. Twitter @docshayji.
