The satirical magazine Private Eye is famous for the waspish speech-bubble jokes on its covers. Its latest is the equivalent of scoring an open goal. There’s a picture of the England team getting ready to fly off to the European Football Championships in France, with one of them saying, “We’ll be out of Europe in time”. The Euros is already underway and ends on July 10. The United Kingdom’s referendum on the European Union (EU) is tomorrow. I am in the interesting position of covering both for BBC World News and who knows what UK and European politics will look like by the time the final kicks-off?
The England football team is in many ways a soft target. Most supporters have taken the long road from expectation and disappointment to lower expectation and disappointment. For the last 20 years, the players have been on the sun-loungers with their wives and children before anyone tunes in to the semifinals of the World Cup or the Euros. As such, the story of the England team has become less interesting. A diet of unrelentingly mediocre quarterfinals interrupted only by the now-you-see-them-now you-don’t group-stage exit in Brazil in 2014, means the fall-out from each departure is diminished. England has gone from railing at the wind, to standing in it and shrugging.
If England at the Euros does follow the usual pattern of late and fails to raise passions as high as once they went, there’s scant danger of that happening over this referendum. It’s hard to overstate how unusual, important and down-right odd this campaign is. As I started on the football, allow me to persist.
This is as if there is one tournament where players play for one set of teams, then there’s another contest in which they forget their allegiances and form two new huge teams. And of course there’s no referee and no yellow or red cards. As the game of the two new huge teams gets dirtier and dirtier, everyone stays on the pitch. Then, in theory, everyone goes back to their original side once the game is over and starts getting on again. In theory.
Footballers actually do this all the time. Manchester United and Manchester City are fierce rivals in the Premier League, but some of their players are currently in France representing England and by all accounts having no trouble getting along. For the UK’s politicians though this is new territory.
It remains extraordinary to see the Justice Minister Michael Gove attempting to dismantle the arguments made by his Tory colleague and Prime Minister, David Cameron. Or to see former prime minister John Major, another Conservative, deliver withering assessments of Boris Johnson, who is considered one of the political stars of his party.
Then there’s the opposition Labour Party, led by a man who admits to doubt about the European Union. Jeremy Corbyn was at the centre of a big photo call by Labour last week to give extra encouragement to their supporters to vote to remain. This matters because if Remain is to win, Labour’s voters need to first turn out and second choose to stay in the EU. Neither are guaranteed.
Mortal blow
Britain is in the extraordinary position of a current Conservative Prime Minister needing the opposition’s supporters to back his position to prevent some of his closest colleagues delivering a devastating and potentially mortal blow to his time as leader. All of which will be offering the highest entertainment value to even the most casual of Westminster observers if the stakes weren’t so awfully high. Going back to football, this is like a World Cup that only happens every 40 years. It’s bigger than a general election and it matters far more too.
It matters more to the UK because the decision will fundamentally shape how we interact with the world, and how we set the rules by which we do business. And because, unlike with a general election, you can’t change your mind in five years. It also matters a lot more to the rest of the world, and in particular Europe.
The EU is already under severe pressure. The Greek debt crisis last year highlighted both the huge challenges of maintaining disparate economies within one currency and the inevitable compromises to sovereignty that come with that. It is no secret that with most international agreements or organisations come a loss of control. In fact, it’s inherent in the process. However, seeing it laid bare as Germany and others informed Greece on the reforms they required in exchange for another bail-out was still deeply uncomfortable for some.
Last summer, Greece seemed like the greatest of tests. It doesn’t anymore. The migrant crisis is undermining some of the key tenets of what the EU wants to be. When Hungary unilaterally started restricting the flow of migrants, it was severely criticised. Then several other members did the same. Freedom of movement and a commitment to collective action are two of the reasons the EU exists. Both were compromised as Europe responded to the arrival of millions across the Mediterranean.
A member leaving is something else which isn’t supposed to happen. The EU has shown a restless ambition to get bigger. The opposite happening is unthinkable. Lest you think I exaggerate, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, didn’t risk understatement last week when he said that a vote for the UK to leave, “could be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU, but also of western political civilisation in its entirety”. Maybe, maybe not. But on thing we can all agree on is that the stakes are high.
I love football, but if I had to choose, I know which contest I’d watch this June. They say journalism is history’s first draft. Often though you can’t know if what you’re seeing will unduly bother historians decades from now. We know about June 23. It will matter for generations. However England does in France, there’s always another chance in two years’ time.
Ros Atkins presents Outside Source on BBC World News. He will be leading the channel’s EU Referendum coverage, including results day programming on June 24.
