The spectacular BJP show in Uttar Pradesh has set the cat among the pigeons. For the struggling opposition and nearly 20 per cent Muslims, this victory seems even more defining and portentous than the outcome of 2014 Elections, especially after the ascent of Yogi Adityanath as the man in charge of India’s largest state.
In many ways, it is. The BJP’s victory margin in the battle for India’s largest state has been highest so far. The party couldn’t manage such numbers — 312+13 out of 403 seats — even at the height of all-consuming Ayodhya agitation.
The credit for this landslide victory goes to Modi and his doppelganger Amit Shah. But does this represent a success of the facetious ‘sab ka saath, sab ka vikas’ (together with all, development for all) mantra?
What explains the BJP’s loss in Punjab, Goa and Manipur? The Congress won emphatically in Punjab and emerged as the largest party in Goa and Manipur while the BJP came second.
So why did Modi’s magic work in UP but fail in Punjab, Goa and Manipur? Journalist Harish Khare explains: “The answer is simple: a Hindu vote bank has been cobbled together and sustained there because UP has a sizeable Muslim population, against whom ancient prejudices and new resentments could be stimulated. This is the bottom line of a complicated electoral contest.”
Modi’s magic failed to deliver in Delhi followed by Bihar and now Punjab and Goa simply because in the absence of a Muslim bogey, the BJP couldn’t resort to polarisation.
UP is different. It’s the heart of the Hindi heartland and home to Ayodhya, the temple town that helped the BJP turn around its fortunes, taking a two-member party to the pinnacle of power in Delhi. When in doubt, the party goes back to its tried, tested mantra and baseline messaging of Hindutva. This is what it did in UP. And how!
Preying on the Hindu angst about secular pandering to Muslims and portraying the minority as an existential threat, the BJP stitched together an extraordinary supra-caste coalition of various communities defying post Mandal realities.
While Samajwadi Party’s Yadavs kept squabbling well into the polls, the BJP began its preparations in right earnest, soon after the 2014 polls. It simply couldn’t afford to lose UP, if it had to return to power in Delhi in 2019.
Its well-oiled machinery and dedicated cadres of various Hindutva outfits had been zealously working, using more than 10,000 WhatsApp groups, neighbourhood committees and network of temples, akharas and schools for the final push. Hotheads like Yogi Adityanath — now the chief minister — and Sakshi Maharaj continually stirred the pot with the talk of love jihad, cow slaughter and Hindu exodus.
The BJP ran a door-to-door campaign, driving home the message of ‘Hindu victimhood’. The party didn’t field a single Muslim candidate of course and flaunted the fact. These polls had become a virtual Hindu vs Muslim battle, reminding many of the pre-Partition toxic confrontation between the Congress and Muslim League.
Modi and Amit Shah spent much of their time in the battleground state, queering the pitch with their talk of graveyards and crematoriums. The result has been spectacular. The BJP deserved to win, thanks to all its hard work and of course the clever messaging against the demonised Other. The party managed to turn UP into a ‘dharm yudh’ (holy war) against an enemy that didn’t even exist.
So what if UP’s Muslims are the most backward in the country, with more than 80 per cent of the 40-million population languishing below poverty line? Blamed historically for the creation of Pakistan and vilified as ‘secular vote bank’, they have long been the fodder of Hindutva cannons.
However, UP 2017 effectively demolished the myth of Muslim vote bank. It was a watershed election and may serve as a template in times to come. By unifying Hindu society and targeting its ire against Muslims, the BJP not only swept the polls, it has brought down the Muslim representation to a historic low — from 69 to 25 seats or 5.9 per cent. Incredibly, the party even won in more than 100 predominantly Muslim seats like Deoband, the seat of Islamic learning.
Understandably, the UP verdict has stunned Muslims, forcing many to suggest extreme measures like avoiding electoral politics for a while. In a prescient speech ahead of UP polls, former MP Muhammad Adeeb warned: “If Muslims don’t want India to become a Hindu Rashtra, they will have to keep away from electoral politics for a while and, instead, concentrate on education. Muslims should understand that their very presence in the electoral fray leads to communal polarisation. Muslim candidates have become a red rag to even secular Hindus who rally behind the BJP, turning every election into a Hindu-Muslim one.”
Adeeb’s argument was carried forward by my friend Siraj Wahab of Arab News, Jeddah: “The lessons that Muslims in India need to learn from UP in 2017 is that they should not seek tickets from any party. They shouldn’t launch their own party/ies — that only helps in consolidating the majority vote bank.”
He went on to argue: “The community’s focus should be on education; modern education. It needs to cultivate the ruling party. It must convert this defeat into opportunity. Democracy can provide the best revenge provided Indian Muslims know how to practice this art subtly and without attracting undue attention.”
These are just two opinions but largely convey the all-consuming despair and frustration that has gripped India’s Muslims. Especially after the BJP’s decision to pick its most rabid face to head UP.
Of course, who wouldn’t agree with the argument that Muslims need to focus on arming themselves with education. It is the only road to their emancipation. But while one understands the concern behind the prescription suggesting self-imposed political ‘sanyas’ or isolation, such a step would be counterproductive and even suicidal in the long run. This is nothing but political escapism.
This may work for a small minority like the Zoroastrians but not for a 200-million strong community. By staying aloof and surrendering its democratic rights, India’s second largest community would end up helping create an apartheid state like Israel.
What Muslims desperately and urgently need to do is build bridges with their Hindu brethren whose majority remains liberal and reasonable. They are our biggest allies in this war for an inclusive India. We pay much lip service to solidarity with fellow travellers like Dalits but how many of us have actually taken such a step?
Secondly, wherever we are, we must reach out to our non-Muslim friends and neighbours to address their misunderstandings about Islam and Muslims. This is the key to many of our problems. This is something that Muslims who have lived in India for more than a thousand years should have done. We are paying for the indifference and apathy of our forebears. If we do not do our bit, our future generations will not forgive us.
The unfolding crackdown in UP on slaughterhouses, meat shops and tanneries — most of them employing Muslims of course — and the so-called Romeos suggests that things are only going to heat up in times to come as the BJP eyes a second term and a bigger mandate in 2019.
Whatever the future has in store, we need to prepare for it. We cannot afford to lose hope. Indian Muslims need a new road map, a whole new approach to reinvent and empower themselves. Strictly avoiding confrontational politics and emotive issues, we must focus our energies on the real challenges and problems facing us like economic deprivation and educational backwardness. UP 2017 is not the end of the world, if we draw the right lessons from it.
Aijaz Zaka Syed is an award-winning journalist. Follow him on Twitter @AijazZakaSyed
