The European Union (EU) has finally moved to impose stricter sanctions on Russia in the face of its refusal to take any responsibility for the Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine shooting down a civilian airliner — Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 — and killing 298 people. The new sanctions are important as an indication that the Europeans are determined not to accept the blatant illegality of the actions of the Russian government. Even Germany, the leading nation in the EU that is dependent on large amounts of energy from Russia, said these moves were unavoidable. For the past week, American President Barack Obama has been urging the Europeans to take the lead on this issue as they are Russia’s neighbours and are the most affected. Now that the EU has finally taken further action, the US will move quickly to upgrade its own sanctions in support of a tougher joint stance.
The EU governments have targeted Russian banks, sales of arms and technology, as well as banned travel and banking facilities to specific individuals who are deemed to be influential in the Russian government. The punitive measures are the most extensive EU sanctions since the Cold War and refusing Russia access to European banking system will make it hard for the Russians to trade or raise credit, forcing them to look further afield to markets like China on much tougher terms.
But as the EU and the US impose tougher sanctions, they also need to remember that a political solution will need the EU to be explicit that it understands that Russia and the EU will have to get along in the end. They share a continent and no one wants to see a restart of a permanent Cold War. Yet, the EU cannot permit Russia to shoot its way back to a significant position in European politics.
Therefore, any incentive needs to revolve around a future restoration of normal trading patterns after Russia backs down on its support for the separatists, in return for greater clarity that Nato and the EU are not an overt threat to the Russian government.
