Indian state polls: Modi’s Trump moment is here as dice is loaded against BJP

Five Indian states are going to polls from November 12 in a battle that could be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘midterm’ moment as he enters the last leg of his five-year rule.

Of the five states – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram – three are ruled by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and located in the so-called Hindi-speaking belt, a right-wing stronghold for many years.

Unlike Donald Trump who lost legislative muscle in the House of Representatives to Democrats, the outcome of these elections will not directly impact the Modi government’s ability to do business. However, the results on December 11 will be the most definite indicator of Modi’s popularity and more importantly they will tell us whether Indians will give him a second chance when they elect a new federal government early next year.

Why these states are important?

These states send a total of 83 elected lawmakers to Parliament and the BJP has 64 seats or a quarter of 282 it won in the entire country. Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have been ruled by the BJP for the last decade and a half and Rajasthan for five years. It is important for the BJP to win at least two, if not all the three Hindi belt states, because these poll results will likely set the mood of the nation, a trend that could stay till the general elections in April-May 2019. Traditionally, if the parliamentary elections are held within six months of state polls, voters follow the same trend. In that sense, a setback in these five states has the potential to derail Modi’s re-election bid.

How is BJP placed?

Opinion polls conducted in recent months indicate that the dice is heavily loaded against the BJP. The most recent one by Center For Voting Opinions and Trends in Election Research (C-Voter) early this month showed a clear defeat for the BJP, a convincing victory for the rival Congress party in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana and a close fight in Chhattisgarh. Opinion polls are known to have gone horribly wrong in the past but the C-Voter survey more or less reflects a trend predicted by other pollsters in the recent past. However, ABP News-Lokniti CSDS survey, also in November, predicted a slight edge for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. But most media commentators agree that the BJP is on a tough wicket this time and although Modi remains the most popular leader, his charisma alone won’t be enough to deliver the votes.

To be fair to Modi, state elections are fought on local issues and performance of the incumbent determines the outcome. A defeat in the states, however, will impact the prime minister personally and dent his carefully crafted image of a tall, invincible leader. In the last four-and-a-half years, the BJP has essentially become a one-man army led by Modi and no other leader matters to people or to him. He is the BJP’s general, the mascot, the poster boy and the ace of spades. Regional leaders and chief ministers in the BJP system have largely become irrelevant or lack charisma, thanks to Modi’s overwhelming presence and his obsession to dominate headlines, not very different from Trump’s leadership style.

While the setback in the US midterm elections will affect Trump’s ability to do legislative business in the coming months, the impact of Indian state elections on Modi will be instant and profound. A Congress victory in more than two states will signal a revival of the opposition party and rising popularity of Modi’s rival and Congress president Rahul Gandhi, a scenario that will have devastating consequences for the prime minister’s political career. On the other hand, a victory, even if it is slender, will immensely boost Modi’s chances to rule India for five more years.

What are the issues?

Modi won the 2014 election promising corruption-free governance, development and economic growth. While the economy has grown at over 7 per cent under his rule, it has remained largely cosmetic with little job creation and minimal trickle-down effect for the masses. On governance, Modi has faltered with his demonetization misadventure and poor execution of GST tax reforms and the allegations of kickbacks on Rafale deal has tarnished his image personally. While these issues may not directly impact the election state outcome, they have helped build a narrative by the opposition parties. The performance of the BJP chief ministers has been a mixed bag and they have faced serious allegations of corruption and poor governance. The BJP’s parent body Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh or the RSS is aware of the electoral challenges ahead. That is why it has decided to fall back on time-tested emotive issues of Ram temple and cultural nationalism, another indication that Modi’s charisma cannot guarantee victory this time.

The results on December 11 will decide which way the mood of the nation will swing – right or centre left.