Why do UAE residents keep buying lottery tickets despite never winning?
Some answers by ever-hopefuls, patient winners, lottery operators - and a psychologist
Dubai: Dubai-based Indian expat Jay is on a silent mission.
“I help make millionaires, even as I wait to become one myself,” he says.
Pray, how?
“Let me tell you,” he obliges.
“I ensure I buy tickets for all the lucky draws in the market. I have been doing it since 2013. I started with Dubai Duty Free and Big Ticket, went on to a couple of now-defunct raffles and have now embraced the latest UAE Lottery. I have never won so far, but every time I buy a ticket, I’ve helped someone win, and I believe my turn will also come soon.”
Now, if that’s being eternally hopeful, so be it.
“Think about it – every week, I can look forward to the possibility that can change my life forever. It gives me a great kick,” he reasons.
Elsewhere, Filipino expat Allen Troy, who has also been buying tickets “for years” now, shares the sentiment. “You cannot expect to win if you do not invest. The hope that one win will enable me to retire sooner and secure my family’s future keeps me going, though I’ve never won,” he shares.
Reward for patience
Patience pays, vouch even winners, who have relentlessly bought tickets for years, before getting lucky.
Examples are many: DDF millionaires Gowda Ashok Gopal after 23 years; Syrian expat Ali Akram Arabo post 15 years; Bangladeshi expat Abul Monsur Abdul Sabur who scooped Dh20 million after participating in Big Ticket for 16 years; fellow Bangaladeshi Shahed Ahmed Moulvifaiz who won Dh10 million after buying Big Ticket since its inception; the list could go on.
While the odds of winning a lottery may seem slim, it’s an experience that brings people together, sparking conversations and dreams.
Martyn Baxter, Lottery Director of Big Ticket, says, “The longest period a buyer has been purchasing Big Ticket is 20 years. It really shows the excitement and loyalty participants have towards the chance of winning big.”
Optimism bias at play
Everyone knows the odds of winning in a lottery or a raffle draw are slim.
But as clinical psychologist Anamika Bajpai explains: “Hope is a great motivator. In terms of cognitive psychology optimism bias plays a great role in players’ overestimation in their chances of winning despite astronomically low odds.”
Buying lotteries might become a defense mechanism against stress and anxiety of day-to-day life. In certain cases, it might give the lottery buyers an illusion of control; which might make them interpret lottery purchase as an investment - a calculated risk
She talks of a feeling of “instant gratification” or “escapism” that one experiences when buying a lottery.
“Buying lotteries might become a defense mechanism against stress and anxiety of day-to-day life. In certain cases, it might give the lottery buyers an illusion of control; which might make them interpret lottery purchase as an investment - a calculated risk,” says Bajpai.
It's the experience
According to lottery operators, it’s not just about buying tickets or waiting for the results – it’s also about the experience.
As Baxter points out, “While the odds may seem slim, it’s an experience that brings people together, sparking conversations, and dreams. We’ve seen a growing number of participants who love being part of something bigger, enjoying the hope and excitement that comes with each ticket they buy. Plus, with so many amazing prizes up for grabs, people feel like they’re always in the running for something exciting.”
A representative of The Game LLC, operator of the The UAE Lottery, whose first official draw is coming up on December 14, says, “The drive to purchase scratch cards and participate in the Lucky Day Draw lies not just in the possibility of winning, but in the thrill and experience of participating. Each ticket purchase is more than just a chance at a prize. Participants buy tickets for anticipation, hope and shared excitement that comes with it.”
Sunk cost fallacy
But how big a factor is the cost of buying the tickets?
Those like Jay and Troy let on that they do not spend more than a couple of hundreds every month. As it turns out, they participate in the draws in pools - of friends, family and colleagues - who, month after month, and year after year, unfailingly purchase jackpot tickets, never winning, but ever hopeful.
Bajpai looks at it a behaviour pattern. “Many buyers, particularly those who have been playing for years without winning, may fall into the “sunk cost fallacy”, where they continue buying these tickets in hopes of “recouping” past losses. The belief that they have already invested so much makes them more likely to keep purchasing tickets, even though it may seem irrational,” she reasons.
Near-Miss-Effect
According to her, another interesting psychological effect to consider is what’s called ‘Near-Miss Effect’, where lottery buyers come close to winning (such as missing out by one number). This feeling of “being almost there” can create a reinforcing loop, motivating players to continue buying tickets with the belief that success is just around the corner- if they continue buying.
But Bajpai has a word of advice. “In some cases globally, the urge to keep buying tickets can become harder to control, even though the odds of winning are low. So, people must be aware and not slip into such a situation.”
Signs to watch out for include spending more money; feeling anxious or irritable; chasing losses; damaging relationships; or becoming overdependent on others.
“In such scenarios, we advise people to seek help from a mental health professional,” she says.
But these are extreme situations.
For the large majority of lottery ticket buyers, it’s just a case of hope springing eternal.