No airstrikes, but Iran’s pressure campaign rolls on

For three days, neither the United States nor Iran has reported carrying out direct attacks, offering the region a rare pause after nearly two weeks of escalating strikes and counterstrikes.

But the current diplomacy is focused less on resolving the conflict than on preventing another rapid escalation. Even as mediators report progress in efforts to bring Washington and Tehran back to negotiations, Monday’s developments suggested that what appears to be a broader Iranian pressure campaign is continuing across the region.

Drone attacks linked to Iran-backed groups, continuing disruption to key shipping lanes and fresh diplomatic confrontations showed that while the missiles may have fallen silent between the two principal adversaries, the wider contest for leverage has not.

A pause in strikes, not in pressure

The latest escalation began after Iran fired at ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to strike Iranian coastal areas and infrastructure.

Washington has since paused its attacks, and Tehran says it halted its own strikes in response.

US President Donald Trump is “giving talks some space. He’s giving it a little bit of room,” Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, told Fox News, according to AP.

The pause has enabled mediators to work on reviving an interim ceasefire that collapsed after the latest exchanges of fire. Regional officials told AP that the discussions had made “significant” progress.

Yet events across the Middle East suggest that Iran is maintaining pressure through other means while diplomacy continues.

Saudi Arabia said it intercepted drones launched by Iran-backed militias in Iraq targeting petroleum facilities. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels separately claimed attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, although it was unclear whether they were referring to the same incident.

Jordan also said it had shot down two drones without identifying their origin, while two drone attacks were reported against a Kurdish Iranian opposition group in Iraq.

None of the incidents caused reported casualties or significant damage. Collectively, however, they illustrated that groups aligned with Tehran remain capable of keeping pressure on US allies and regional infrastructure even during a pause in direct US-Iran hostilities.

Maritime leverage remains central

The Strait of Hormuz continues to sit at the heart of the crisis.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said mediators could pass messages from Washington but insisted there were no direct negotiations. He also confirmed that Iran and Oman had discussed future mechanisms for managing navigation through the strategic waterway.

“The objective is for Iran and Oman, as the two coastal states, to develop mechanisms to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while respecting the sovereign rights and sovereignty of both coastal states, as well as Iran’s security and national interests,” Baqaei said.

He stressed that the strait remained closed.

Commercial shipping through Hormuz has fallen to a three-week low, according to a maritime body overseen by the US Navy, while the US military says its renewed naval blockade against Iran remains in force.

Pressure on regional shipping is also extending to the Bab Al Mandeb Strait, where the Iran-backed Houthis have threatened Saudi-linked vessels and attacked at least one tanker.

The continuing disruption highlights how strategic waterways remain one of Tehran’s strongest sources of leverage even without further direct military action.

Diplomacy backed by warnings

Alongside indirect military pressure, Iran is also escalating its diplomatic response.

Tehran warned Ukraine of “unforeseen” consequences after Kyiv struck an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, an attack Iran said killed one sailor and injured several others.

“This action by Ukraine was an absolutely illegal and unjustified act, contrary to the Charter of the United Nations, as well as a dangerous act of adventurism that will certainly not go unanswered by us,” Baqaei said, according to AFP.

Iran also summoned the French ambassador after accusing two French diplomats of interfering in its internal affairs. France, meanwhile, said the diplomats had been detained, interrogated and intimidated earlier this month.

Taken together, the developments suggest Tehran is seeking to preserve diplomatic and strategic leverage on several fronts while negotiations continue.

Holding leverage before tougher negotiations

The larger issues that fuelled the conflict - particularly Iran’s nuclear programme - have effectively been pushed into the background as mediators concentrate on preventing another round of direct fighting.

That creates an incentive for both sides to avoid actions that could derail the talks while still seeking to strengthen their bargaining positions.

For Iran, maintaining pressure through regional allies, maritime restrictions and diplomatic retaliation allows it to keep raising the costs for its adversaries without immediately inviting another wave of American airstrikes.

The past three days have lowered the immediate risk of another full-scale military exchange between Washington and Tehran. But Monday’s developments suggest the confrontation has entered a different phase — one in which leverage is increasingly exercised through proxies, strategic waterways and diplomatic pressure rather than direct missile exchanges.