Is Iran losing its grip on the Strait of Hormuz?

A MAJOR shift appears to be taking place in one of the world’s most strategic waterways, industry data shows.

Marine Insight, citing shipping data from Brussels-based Kpler, reported on Thursday (Aug. 19) that over 80% of vessels are increasingly choosing routes closer to Omani waters, reducing their exposure to Iranian-controlled areas.

Overall Hormuz shipping traffic is still sharply below pre-war levels and rising crude prices (Brent stood at $93.75 at 12.23pm Friday in Beijing) suggest markets remain skeptical.

Iran stills raise security concerns, but the shifting shipping patterns could weaken Tehran’s practical control over how commercial vessels navigate the strait.

And while Iran may not have completely lost its influence over Hormuz, oil is increasingly finding ways to reach world markets, while ships sail beyond its direct reach.

The Policy Centre for the New South (PCNS), a Morocco-based think-tank, has also cited this new dynamic, suggesting that the Hormuz crisis shows a global political economy "fragmenting” as energy markets, trade routes, and financial systems adjust “through volatility, rerouting, and segmentation.”

“Maritime chokepoints, energy corridors, and trade routes were expected to remain operational even during crises — not by legal guarantee, but through a shared understanding that systemic disruption would impose prohibitive costs on all parties. The partial closure and militarisation of Hormuz shows that this equilibrium no longer holds,” PCNS stated.

Shifting maritime patterns suggest commercial vessels are increasingly navigating closer to Omani territorial waters to bypass Iranian-controlled areas. 

The US military has made efforts to ramp up oil traffic through the strait, claiming ~10 million+ barrels some days, occasionally higher, approaching pre-war flows.

CNN acknowledged in a recent report that Iran may be “losing its grip”, reporting that “more oil tankers appear to be navigating the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz under US military protection.”

Fox News also reported as much, showing shipping lanes (pre-war, Iranian-preferred, and Omani/IMO routes) on the Oman side getting “busier”.

While overall traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly lower than pre-war levels, these routing “adaptations”, alongside overland pipelines and the growing demand destruction through a bump in global EV sales, are increasingly diluting Tehran’s practical leverage over the critical energy corridor. 

Key recent developments (as of August 21, 2026)

• Shipping patterns have shifted: Maritime data firm Kpler reports that over the past two weeks, more than 80% of liquids traffic has used the Omani-side route (a UN-authorised channel Iran opposes) or “dark” transits (AIS off). A month earlier, almost none used that route. Analysts at Kpler have said this shows Iran has “at least partially lost control”.

• CNN assessment: An August 19 article titled “Iran has lost significant control of the Strait of Hormuz” notes US naval patrols enabling alternative routing, with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright citing combined transits (through the strait + reroutes) around 15 million barrels per day in a recent week — closer to the pre-war ~20 million bpd average than earlier depressed figures. Traditional AIS-based tracking still shows very low visible daily vessel counts (often single digits vs. ~130 pre-war), partly due to dark sailings and ship-to-ship transfers outside the immediate danger zone.

• Iran threats: After the US-Iran conflict intensified in early 2026, Iran sought to institutionalise control (via permits, potential fees, preferred Iranian-side routes) and used mines, drones, missiles, and fast boats to enforce it. 

• MOU: The deal signed on June 17, 2026 temporarily eased things (no charges for 60 days, safe passage facilitation), but it expired around Aug 17 amid disputes over interpretation—Iran viewing it as recognizing its administrative role, the US/Gulf states rejecting that. 

• Military escorts: US forces have provided escorts/overwatch, struck Iranian assets, and maintained pressure (including a naval blockade on Iranian ports at times). Iran’s conventional surface fleet has been heavily degraded, complicating sustained high-tempo enforcement, though drones and asymmetric tools remain effective at raising costs/uncertainty.
  

A Money Control analysis published on August 21 also describes Iran’s grip as “weakening” — as the Tehran regime finds it increasingly harder to compel all traffic onto its terms.

Neither side has absolute control: risks persist (attacks, high insurance, stranded crews), and Iran continues to assert the strait “has been, is, and will remain Iranian.” 

Meanwhile, US officials and Trump have claimed growing or total control and successful “quiet” oil movements. Iranian officials reject this claim.

The situation remains fluid and high-stakes given the strait’s role in ~20% of global seaborne oil. 

Commercial operators, meanwhile,  increasingly favour the protected Omani corridor over Iranian demands.

There’s no independent verification of the US claim of “10–20 million barrels some nights” oil flow through Hormuz at the moment. 

Late on Thursday (early Friday in the Gulf) US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he’s “puzzled” by the sudden oil price spike. 

Bessent’s surprise highlighted tensions as the Trump administration boasts of covert operations escorting tankers, moving 10 million barrels daily — sometimes up to 15-20 million — reducing Iran's grip on the vital route. 

Vice President JD Vance echoed this, noting Iran no longer holds the leverage for an energy crisis, aligning with goals of stable US energy prices and blocking Iran's nuclear path. 

Critics tie the price surge directly to geopolitical strains, with knock-on effects like Asian oil shortages and market instability. 

Alternative routing: More than 80% of active vessels choose paths near Oman, reducing their direct exposure to Iranian maritime enforcement. 

• Persistent military pressure: Ongoing US and allied operations target coastal and anti-ship capabilities along the southern Iranian coast.

• Diplomatic and regional talks: Discussions involving regional actors like Oman seek alternative frameworks for managing strait traffic outside of unilateral Iranian decrees.

• Market sensitivity: The Strait of Hormuz’s role in global oil flow keeps all eyes on what happens next for supplies and prices.

• US military production surge: A “surge” in US military hardware production, specifically of missile defence systems and anti-drone gear, could tilt the tide in the event of a renewed, tech-driven war.