Iraq warns of historic water crisis in 2025

Dubai: Iraq is bracing for what officials are calling one of the most severe water shortages in the nation’s history, as prolonged drought conditions and declining inflows from neighbouring countries push the region toward a deepening crisis.

According to Iraqi Minister of Water Resources Aoun Dhiab Abdullah, the year 2025 may become Iraq’s most water-stressed year on record.

“The year 2025 will be among the most difficult Iraq has faced in terms of water scarcity,” Abdullah said, citing plummeting water levels in rivers and reservoirs across the country and a steady decline in water inflows from upstream neighbours, particularly Turkey and Iran.

No wheat planting this September

In a drastic measure, Abdullah announced that all agricultural planting will be suspended in September due to the dire water shortage. The move is expected to halt wheat cultivation for the upcoming season.

This comes after two years of self-sufficiency in wheat production, with annual yields exceeding five million tonnes.

Water reserves drop to critical levels

Abdullah warned that current water storage in Iraq’s major dams and reservoirs—including Mosul, Darbandikhan, Dokan, Tharthar, Haditha, and Hamrin—has dropped below eight billion cubic metres. This volume, he said, is far below the threshold required to support both agriculture and domestic consumption.

Upstream dam operations in Turkey

A major factor in the crisis is reduced river flow from upstream dams in Turkey. Altered release patterns and new infrastructure on the tributaries of the Tigris and Euphrates have significantly curtailed downstream water volumes.

Abdullah noted that while Turkey is currently releasing approximately 350 cubic metres per second (m³/s) of water at the Syrian border, only about 200 m³/s is reaching Iraq’s Haditha Dam—well below historical averages. Turkish releases into the Tigris have also dwindled to just 200 m³/s.

October rain could offer partial relief

Despite the bleak short-term outlook, the minister said weather forecasts suggest some hope. Rainfall is expected in October, along with a drop in September temperatures—conditions that could reduce evaporation rates and help mitigate further water loss.