Can League solve Lebanon crisis?

Beirut: Amr Mousa, secretary-general of the Arab League, is expected in Beirut on Wednesday, the latest high-profile visit here in a string of efforts to solve Lebanon's six-week presidential deadlock.

He will push for the acceptance of a joint Arab proposal - a plan that supports the election of Army chief General Michel Sulaiman - that was adopted unanimously on Sunday at a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Cairo. Syria, which backs the Lebanese political opposition, also approved the plan.

Where Mousa hopes to succeed, French and other Arab initiatives have failed.

Lebanon has been without a president since November 23, when the previous incumbent, Emile Lahoud, left office at the end of his term. New elections have been delayed largely due to disputes over power-sharing.

Although the Lebanese opposition, spearheaded by Hezbollah, has cautiously welcomed the Arab plan, analysts suggest that it could founder as rivals discuss the finer points in the days ahead.

"The devil is in the details and there are plenty of opportunities to derail the plan in the future," says Michael Young, opinion editor of the English-language Daily Star newspaper.

The proposal

The proposal calls for the immediate election of General Sulaiman, whose nomination as head of state is supported by both sides; the formation of a national unity government in which Sulaiman would hold the balance of power through ministers close to him; and the adoption of a new electoral law.

Mohammad Raad, who heads Hezbollah's parliamentary bloc, says a final decision on the Arab League proposal would depend on subsequent developments. "We don't want to be pessimistic or block the route to any productive decision, especially in a complicated matter like the Lebanese issue."

Mua'alem was warned

Amal Sa'ad-Gorayeb, a Hezbollah expert at the Carnegie Endowment's Middle East Centre in Beirut, says the Arab League proposal appeared to be an attempt to "weaken the opposition and corner it. It seems that Hezbollah is not too thrilled about it and I think that the end result will be that the opposition will not agree."

Michel Aoun, Hezbollah's main Christian ally in the opposition who harbours presidential ambitions himself, is also likely to object to the proposal, analysts say. Granting the balance of power in the next cabinet to Sulaiman, a Maronite Christian, as all Lebanese heads of state traditionally must be, will significantly weaken Aoun's political influence.

So why would Syria sign onto a plan that might weaken its Lebanese allies? One reason, analysts say, is the threat of a boycott of the Arab League summit scheduled to be hosted by Damascus in March. The summit is a prestigious annual event attended by Arab heads of state and will boost Syria's credentials in the region.

According to Lebanon's An Nahar newspaper, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mua'alem was warned on the sidelines of Sunday's Arab League meeting that Saudi King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz would refuse to attend the March summit if Damascus failed to endorse the Arab League proposal.

"The Syrians want the summit to be a success," says Sami Moubayed, a Syrian political analyst, adding that although the Arab League proposal is "not perfect [for Syria] ... it's the closest thing to perfect at this stage."