Allawi can curb Iran influence

Cairo: The surprisingly strong election showing by a secular, nationalist coalition in Iraq has provided a sudden opening for the mostly Sunni Arab world to curtail Iranian influence in Iraq, something that has been a source of serious alarm for the United States and its Arab allies since 2003.

The banner headline in Asharq Al Awsat, an influential newspaper in Saudi Arabia, said it all The Awakening of Moderation in Iraq offering an immediate endorsement of Iraq's top vote-getter by the regional Sunni Arab powerhouse.

The Iraqiya coalition led by Eyad Allawi, a secular Shiite who has campaigned for better ties with the Arab world and keeping neighbouring Iran at a distance, won 91 of the new legislature's 325 seats, edging Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki's mainly Shiite bloc by only two seats. Allawi was prime minister in 2004-05.

The narrow win foreshadowed possibly months of hard-nosed negotiations over the formation of a new government. But Allawi's numerical victory was triumph enough for the mostly Sunni Arab regimes that have been wary of Shiite-dominated Iraqi governments since the 2003 US invasion that ousted Saddam Hussain.

Tips the scale

Sunni Arab governments have long kept their distance from Iraq's postwar governments. They have declined to send full ambassadors first because of the US occupation, then because of the precarious security and more recently because of their anger over perceived Iranian influence. But they have begun warming toward Iraq, and Allawi's ascension would likely tip the balance.

The United States has long maintained that Iran was fomenting violence in Iraq. Washington charges that Tehran provides Shiite militiamen with money, weapons and training and blames the deaths of hundreds of American soldiers in Iraq on a particularly effective brand of roadside bomb it says is supplied by Iran.

US officials also claimed the banning by a Shiite-led vetting body of hundreds of candidates from running in the March 7 election for their alleged ties to the Saddam regime was inspired by Tehran. Many of those blacklisted were Sunni Arabs. Iran denies the allegations.

Significantly deepening the concern has been Iran's disputed nuclear programme and its alleged support for groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah and the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza. Iran has not officially commented on the election results, which were reported by the state-run news agency without comment. However, a senior lawmaker charged on Saturday that Washington and Saudi Arabia had exerted their influence to get their favourite candidates elected.

Rigged

"That's why the Iraqi elections have definitely been rigged," hardline lawmaker Esmail Kowsari said.

Iran's main challenge to the region building a sphere of influence extending from Iraq all the way to Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip makes any Iraqi leader with an anti-Iranian policy a favourite for Arab governments.

Although a Shiite, Allawi is no exception and has enjoyed friendly relations with Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates for years.

"Allawi will be able to strengthen Iraq's relations with the Arab world and will also be able to initiate contacts and improve relations with countries in the region," said Hani Horani, director of the New Jordan Research Centre in Amman, Jordan. "He's capable of establishing balanced relations with all Arab countries and reversing Iraq's tendency to lean toward Iran."