'No swift end' to Yemeni rebellion

Dubai: The ongoing battle on the Yemeni-Saudi border which originally started as a small blaze has turned into a raging forest fire which will be difficult to extinguish soon, analysts say.

However, it will not spread beyond the current borders either, they added.

"This is a different war," said Ayman Al Sayyad, editor-in-chief of the respected Cairo-based monthly magazine Wejhat Nathar (Points of View).

"In general, wars in rugged areas and against guerilla groups have …unusual rules, and can't be monitored like wars between two regular armies," he told Gulf News.

"Such wars don't end like conventional wars," Al Sayyad said.

He gave the US-led war on the Taliban in Afghanistan as an example, and said the world's strongest army "could not and will not" be able to end the battle in its favour in a conventional manner.

Apart from geographical reasons, the "complex" nature of the Yemeni rebellion is also among the main factors that make many political analysts believe that the issue is unlikely to be resolved soon.

Last week, the battle against the rebels in northern Yemen took on a new dimension: the rebels crossed the Saudi border, and Saudi Arabia launched air strikes against them.

The Yemeni government's war against the rebels goes back to 2004, when battles between the regular army and a Shiite group led by Hussain Badr Al Deen Al Houthi erupted.

Al Houthi rebels cited political, economic and religious marginalisation by the Yemeni government.

The rebels have been accused of attempting to overthrow the government. Al Houthi was killed in 2005 but the fighting continued intermittently over the years. It took a turn around August when Yemen's army launched a massive military operation against the rebels.

Opposition

"The Al Houthis were a small family, but now the expression includes whoever is considered to be against the existing situation. This opposition includes tribal opposition, sectarian opposition and political opposition," Al Sayyad said.

The issue has now taken on a "regional dimension" after the rebels crossed into Saudi Arabia, some analysts warned.

However, other analysts explained that this is "only part of the scene". They said other roots of the problem include lack of attention by neighbouring countries to the internal developments in Yemen, an improvised country in the Gulf region and one of the least developed nations in the world.

Security cooperation between Yemen and its neighbours should have also included political and economic issues, Mohammad Sabri, a Yemeni political analyst and an opposition figure said.

The neighbouring countries "could have put diplomatic pressures on the Yemeni government to handle internal problems correctly", he said.

"Any explosion in Yemen will have repercussions on the region," Sabri continued.

The Yemeni government has accused Iran of supporting the Al Houthis — a charge denied by Tehran.

Last week Sana'a announced the seizure of an Iranian ship with arms it says were destined for Yemeni rebels.

The Iranian embassy in Sana'a denied the charge, and said the ship was carrying no cargo at all.

Analysts said there is no clear evidence, yet, of Iranian involvement in the deterioration of the security situation along the Yemeni-Saudi border.

Meanwhile, other political experts described ongoing fighting in the mountainous areas as "one of the grounds for Iranian-Saudi disagreement".

"Give me evidence that the US supports Israel," prominent Saudi analyst Turki Al Sudairi replied when asked to comment on lack of evidence of Iranian involvement. Such support "usually happens under the table", Al Sudairi, editor-in-chief of the Saudi mass circulated newspaper Al Riyadh, told Gulf News.

"Iranian media have been launching attacks on Saudi Arabia for nearly two months on purpose. They also used the Haj as a pretext [to add on to the attacks]."

Senior Saudi officials have said the Kingdom will not allow anybody to "disturb the atmosphere of Haj" after Tehran leaders said Iranians could experience mistreatment during the annual pilgrimage, which will reach its climax in late November.

Many Arab countries have accused Iran of interfering in their internal affairs. Iran has denied the charge.

"Saudi Arabia will protect its border, population and its [religious events], whether those people came from southern Yemen or any other country. Saudi Arabia doesn't accept interference in its affairs," Al Sudairi stressed.

He described those who crossed the Saudi borders as people "assigned to carry out sabotage and terrorism acts inside the Kingdom".