India's total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 children per woman for the first time

Dubai: India’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.9 children per woman for the first time, dropping below the replacement level needed to sustain population growth over the long term and marking a profound demographic shift in the world’s most populous nation. 

The decline, according to The Economist⁠, signals that India has entered a new phase of development, moving from decades of concern over rapid population growth to growing anxiety about an ageing society, shrinking family sizes and future labour shortages. 

In the crowded neighbourhoods of Delhi where large families were once the norm, the transformation is already evident. 

India’s population has expanded from around 360 million people in 1950 to approximately 1.45 billion today, accounting for roughly one-sixth of humanity. 

The country overtook China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023, but demographic experts say the era of sustained population growth is approaching its end.

A fertility rate of around 2.1 children per woman is generally considered necessary to maintain a stable population in the absence of migration.  

India’s rate of 1.9 suggests that, while the population will continue to grow for several decades due to demographic momentum, eventual decline has become increasingly likely unless birth rates recover. 

The trend is particularly pronounced in urban centres and southern states. According to the report, Delhi’s fertility rate has fallen to just 1.2 children per woman, while the southern state of Tamil Nadu and eastern state of West Bengal have reached approximately 1.3, levels comparable to some European countries. 

The shift represents a significant reversal in official thinking. As recently as 2019, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned of a “population explosion”. Today, policymakers are increasingly concerned that India could follow a trajectory similar to China, whose population has been shrinking since 2021. 

Demographers attribute the decline to several factors, including rising educational attainment among women, changing aspirations among parents, increasing urbanisation and the growing cost of raising children.  

Many families now prioritise investing heavily in a single child rather than supporting larger households.

The spread of nuclear families has also altered traditional support structures. Multi-generational households, once commonplace across India, have become less common as economic opportunities draw younger people to cities and different regions.

Experts note that India’s demographic transition is occurring at a relatively low level of income compared with many countries that experienced similar fertility declines. The development challenges conventional assumptions that fertility falls only after countries become substantially wealthier.

While some analysts argue that slower population growth could ease pressure on infrastructure, housing and public services, others warn that India risks growing old before it becomes rich. A rapidly ageing population could place significant strain on pension systems, healthcare services and family support networks. 

The United Nations projects that India’s population will continue growing until the 2060s before gradually declining. However, alternative demographic models suggest the peak could arrive much sooner, potentially within the next two decades, followed by a sharper contraction later this century. 

The implications are expected to extend beyond economics, influencing labour markets, internal migration patterns, political representation and social structures in the decades ahead. 

For a country long viewed as the symbol of population growth, the challenge is no longer how to accommodate ever-expanding numbers. Instead, India is increasingly confronting the same demographic questions that have preoccupied much of Europe and East Asia: how to sustain economic dynamism and social welfare in an era of fewer births and an ageing population.