Comment : 'High-tech' Chandrababu Naidu on a very sticky wicket

When one thought of Andhra Pradesh in the eighties and early nineties, the picture which came to mind was that of a maverick super star of Telugu cinema, N.T. Rama Rao (NTR) in his various avatars – including that of a ardha-narishwari– mouthing filmy dialogues as he ruled the state.

His constant refrain had nothing to do with reforms or high tech. He was more into basic issues like free rice and free power to farmers and prohibition.

But his son-in-law, a scraggy looking youngster, who dethroned him in 1995, changed the idiom of political discourse not only in the state, but also in the entire country.

But with the fate of candidates in the 21 Lok Sabha seats and 147 State Legislative Assembly constituencies in Andhra Pradesh having already been sealed, and with the remaining similar number of constituencies, in both the Lok Sabha and Assembly, going to polls on April 26, all indications are that this "high-tech, reform-friendly" Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party(TDP) is on a very sticky wicket.

The constituencies, which went to polls on Tuesday, covered the entire 107 Assembly and 16 Lok Sabha constituencies in Telangana and 37 Assembly and five Lok Sabha constituencies in north coastal region and three assembly seats in the Godavari belt.

In 1999, Naidu's Telugu Desam had won 82 of these seats, while Congress had won only 48 in the Assembly. In the Lok Sabha, the TDP-Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) combine had won as many as 17 of the 21 seats, with TDP winning 13 of it, and Congress only three.

By all indications, the TDP-BJP combine has slipped quite a lot in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha in the polls held on Tuesday.

But what is more interesting are the trends coming in from the remaining 21 Lok Sabha and 147 assembly constituencies which will go to polls on April 26.

These constituencies which cover the central and south coastal districts and Rayalaseema, incidentally from where Chandrababu Naidu hails, was the gold mine for the TDP-BJP combine in 1999.

With 19 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats going to them, with TDP winning 16 of them, and 105 of the 147 seats in the Assembly, these regions had almost wiped Congress out.

It is in these regions that the TDP-BJP combine is hoping to do well again.

The theory is that with the Congress aligning with the separatist party like Telangana Rashtra Samithi, which is seeking to break up Andhra Pradesh, Naidu and his BJP colleagues would be able to whip up the anti-Telangana sentiments to their advantage.

One should realise that all the major industrialists, businessmen and those associated with trade and other related activities, including the formidable Telugu film and TV industry, hail from these coastal regions and the Godavari belt.

They have a vested interest in not allowing the break up of the state, as they have invested hugely in the capital Hyderabad and surrounding areas, which are all part of Telangana.

With many of the major newspaper and media groups also under the control of these people, there has always been formidable resistance to the separate statehood demand. One of the main demands of the pro-Telangana activists is that Hyderabad should be theirs.

It is these sentiments, Naidu has been hoping to evoke and take advantage of in these regions.

However, the ground situation, as it exists now, does not seem to have lived up to the hopes of Naidu.

His nine-year rule, and the concomitant 'fatigue' factor, mixed with problems faced by the farmers leading to many suicides, water and power shortages, series of drought, especially in the Rayalaseema area, corruption indulged in by the TDP MLAs and MPs, have all come together to haunt him.

His hope that these issues will get over-ridden by the anti-Telangana sentiment does not seem to have come to fruition.

So much so, his task in the second round of elections on April 26 has become that much more formidable.

With all exit polls as well as informed ground level reports from the areas which went to polls on Tuesday, indicating that the TDP-BJP may lose at least 30 seats. And in the Lok Sabha too, it may just manage to touch the double figure.

Though Naidu has tried to contain the anti-incumbency feeling, by depriving tickets to tens of the sitting MLAs in the area, the overall feeling of disappointment against the government seems to be playing a spoilsport, for Naidu.

Having concentrated on sprucing up Hyderabad and a couple of other major cities in the state has not gone down well with the rural electorate.

Naidu is also suffering from his decision to take on the Naxals head on and making them an election issue, as has been seen in the first round of polling.

It was evident that the Naxals were more keen on people going and voting, in the Telangana regions as well as in north costal areas, where they have a good base, unlike in the past, when they used to announce boycotts of polls, and warn the people against voting.

As things stand, Naidu not only has a Herculean task before him to return to power for the third time (actually second time, as in 1994, it was his father-in-law N.T.

Rama Rao who had won the elections), in the state, but is also facing the prospect of having much less numbers in the Lok Sabha to play his by now familiar king-maker's role at the centre.

– Girish Nikam is an analyst specialising on South India