US-Israel-Iran war: Lull nears 'breaking point' — US, Israel weighing new strikes? What to know Oct. 20, 2026

The US-Israel war with Iran is entering an uneasy lull nearly eight months after it began, with major combat operations paused but diplomatic efforts stalled.

Escalation plans, however, are circulating.  

Tensions around Hormuz, Houthi attacks, rising oil prices and growing Russian and Chinese support for Tehran underscore the conflict’s widening regional and global consequences. 

The next move could determine whether the fragile pause holds or fighting resumes. Following are the updates to know today (Oct. 20, 2026): 

Iran’s IRGC says most US Middle East bases have been “rendered inactive,” and Iran Air’s chief says 20 to 30 commercial aircraft were destroyed. A spokesman for the Iranian Navy, however, said two projectiles launched by US forces struck a 35mm cannon at the Konorak Naval Base on Monday night.

According to him, two Islamic Republic of Iran Navy personnel were injured by the attack. CentCom has not yet confirmed responsibility. The US military last carried out strikes on military and IRGC targets in Iran on September 1, 2026, according to IranWire.

This comes as the IRGC Navy claimed an oil tanker hit a naval mine Friday, which CentCom disputed, saying a container ship was hit by an Iranian projectile. Iran says it has blacklisted 122 vessels.

It is possible that the IRGC may respond to this attack. Claims cannot be independently verified immediately.

CentCom chief Adm. Brad Cooper said in a video message the Strait of Hormuz "is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran, and it remains open for business.”

He added about 400 merchant ships transited the strait in the previous week and that US-backed operations helped Gulf partners move more than 100 million barrels of crude oil.

The IRGC, however, warned vessels against violating Iranian rules for passage, and Iranian officials have tied reopening to seven conditions.

Air travel in the UAE was hit by cancellations and delays on Monday, Oct. 19, as regional security concerns continued to disrupt flights. Services linking the UAE and Saudi Arabia were among the hardest affected, and cancellations were also reported on routes from Abu Dhabi and Sharjah to destinations in Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

Dubai International Airport’s arrivals page showed cancellations on flights from India and Saudi Arabia. At Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi, several arriving flights ran late. Etihad Airways cancelled its Abu Dhabi routes to Dammam, Riyadh and Jeddah through Oct. 24. Passengers are urged to confirm flight status with their airline before heading to the airport.

President Donald Trump said Monday the US was in a position to “leave” the Iran war now, even as he described the country’s military and leadership as devastated, and added that Tehran would not obtain a nuclear weapon. Senator Bernie Sanders urged Trump to “immediately end” the war, citing higher US fuel prices.

“Somebody said you could leave right now. It’s true. We could leave right now. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Kansas. Trump said Iran had no navy or air force left and that its radar and air defenses had been destroyed. He also said 229 Iranian fighter jets were “scattered all over the runways.” 

Axios reports Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met Netanyahu on an unannounced Israel visit amid talks on resuming major combat. US media reported that Netanyahu told Trump they “have a job to finish.” Sources say the Pentagon has prepared plans to use the “mother of all bombs” on Iranian military sites if Trump orders it. The White House says it doesn’t comment on sensitive military plans. Meanwhile, Trump said the US could leave Iran now and ruled out a nuclear weapon, per a live-blog headline. 

Brig.Gen Hossein Mohebi, spokesperson for the IRGC, has warned the United States against renewed attacks and explicitly threatened to target seven major undersea internet cables passing through Hormuz. Seven submarine fiber-optic cables running through the strait carry critical internet, commercial data, banking transactions, and military/AI communications. The warning follows statements from Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and earlier manoeuvres where IRGC-linked media (such as Tasnim) mapped out digital infrastructure across the Gulf as a strategic leverage point. 

Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire with the US remains available after Trump rejected it last month. Iran also says its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain in place.

At least 53 people were killed and 200+ hurt in a Houthi missile strike. Saudi and Turkish foreign ministers condemned Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Tehran denies any role in Houthi operations and offers to mediate between the Houthis and Riyadh.

Iraq’s oil exports have climbed above 3.4 million barrels per day since early October despite the war affecting the Strait of Hormuz, Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair told state-run Iraqi News Agency (INA). Exports averaged 3 million barrels per day in September. Khudair said shipments move through Hormuz, Turkey's Ceyhan port and tanker trucks crossing Syria, supplying European, Asian and US markets.

In his first visit since the war began, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov condemned the US-Israeli attacks as illegal. Iran’s president criticised what he called an “unprovoked war.” China’s premier also backed Iran, according to Iranian state media.

Brent oil remains above $109.8 per barrel (slightly up 0.26%) as of Tuesday (12.50pm Beijing on Tuesday, October 20, 2026), as Iran war risks offset hopes for more Russian supply. WTI crude stood at $98.71 per barrel while Murban dropped 1.99% to $111.1 per barrel.

US President Donald Trump threatened that Washington could leave Europe, accusing the continent’s leaders of failing to help the United States over Iran. In a Monday Truth Social post, Trump said European countries were absent when Washington sought assistance, describing the request as a test.

What to watch: whether Washington chooses a ceasefire or resumed strikes, and whether Hormuz clashes widen.