Iran-US conflict escalates: Trump warns of 'not-so-nice' end, Vance demands enrichment cuts as oil blockade hits Iran economy

Oil prices rose Wednesday and stocks fell amid fresh concerns about Middle East supplies following a warning that Iran appeared to be stepping up attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

The retreat came as investors brushed off another record day on Wall Street where the Nasdaq and S&P 500 were boosted by a rush back into the AI trade that saw chip titan Nvidia push towards a $6 trillion market capitalisation.

Confidence has been given a boost this week as reports said that exports from the Middle East -- excluding Iran -- were pushing back towards pre-war levels.

However, both contracts rebounded Tuesday and rose in early Asian trade, as figures showed Tehran had increased strikes on tankers in the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

The Saudi-led coalition battling Yemen's Houthis said Wednesday it had shot down a ballistic missile north of Riyadh.

"A ballistic missile launched by the terrorist Houthi militia north of Riyadh was intercepted and destroyed," the coalition's spokesman Major General Turki al-Maliki wrote on X. 

Central Bank of Iran (CBI) Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati dismissed US predictions claiming the Iranian economy would collapse in short order, calling the forecasts "delusional" and assuring the public that Tehran has sufficient foreign currency reserves to secure basic necessities.

Hemmati dismissed predictions by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that Iran's economy would "collapse within two weeks." Hemmati cited a proverb ("Chickens are counted at the end of autumn") to assert that Washington's economic predictions will not materialise, as per Shafaq News.

Trend News Agency also detailed Hemmati's statements outlining that after failing in military objectives, the US transitioned to an "economic war" targeting Iran's foreign exchange market and financial system, while affirming that the CBI retains legal mechanisms to stabilise the market.

Hemmati, alongside Supreme National Security Council Chairman Mohsen Rezaei, asserted that U.S. predictions on Iran's imminent economic collapse lack credibility.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly questioned the role of Iran’s newly appointed oil minister after tanker-tracking data showed that Iran has not loaded a single barrel of crude onto a vessel since late August, underscoring the impact of the US-led naval blockade on Tehran’s most vital revenue stream.

On October 6, Bessent posted on X: “Iran has a new oil minister. Considering Iran has not loaded a single barrel of crude onto a vessel since August 25th, what is the oil minister managing?”

The remark came hours after President Masoud Pezeshkian accepted the resignation of Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad and appointed Hamid Bovard, head of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), as acting minister.

US President Donald Trump stated in a press exchange on October 6, 2026, that his "biggest problem" in dealing with the conflict with Tehran is that "nobody knows who the hell is running" Iran after successive tiers of Iranian leadership were eliminated.

Speaking to reporters before boarding Marine One at the White House, Trump remarked: "Their leaders are gone, their second group of leaders are gone, and the biggest problem I have is nobody knows who the hell is running the country."

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei pushed back on Trump's statements, asserting that Washington knows full well how Iran's decision-making structure works. Baghaei pushed the fault back onto Washington, citing "contradictory positions and mixed messaging from US officials".

US President Donald Trump stated during an address at an Anduril Industries event in Sparrows Point, Maryland, on October 6, 2026, that the United States must "finish up" the war with Iran, adding that Washington will soon decide whether to bring the conflict to an end the "nice way or the not-so-nice way."

Trump told attendees that the United States was doing "extremely well" against Iran and declared that its military capabilities had been effectively neutralised: "They have no military in sight. The whole place is shot. They were the bully of the Middle East, and they're not so much the bully anymore."

By giving a choice between the "nice way or the not-so-nice way," Trump implied an upcoming choice between a diplomatic settlement or an intensified military campaign aimed at forced resolution.

US Vice President JD Vance stated in an interview with journalists on October 7, 2026, that Iran must make a "meaningful" and "significant" reduction in its nuclear enrichment capacity to satisfy Washington's demands and bring an end to the ongoing conflict.

Vance emphasised that Washington remains open to a diplomatic agreement, but Iran must demonstrate concrete nuclear concessions — specifically scaling back its uranium enrichment infrastructure — to secure a permanent ceasefire.

Vance noted that while the US is engaged in backchannel discussions with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, Washington remains uncertain how much decision-making authority these civilian officials hold following the decapitation of Iran's top leadership.

US President Donald Trump claimed that millions of barrels of oil have moved through the Strait of Hormuz over the past few days. Speaking to reporters before leaving for Maryland, he said shipments are now matching, and at times topping, the volumes seen before the war.

Trump also said Iran's oil minister has resigned, claiming the official admitted that Iran has no economy and no oil left.

Day 221: Iran warns US, Israel: Response to attack will be ‘devastating’

Day 220: Mecca Alliance could be 'NATO of Mid-East’ vs Houthis

Day 219: Trump weighs ‘easy or hard’ option as Iran holds firm

Day 218: Iran's IRGC warns US of 'more lethal' response 

Day 217: US sends 9,000 more troops, third carrier to Middle East

Day 216: US sends 9,000 more troops, third carrier to Mid-East

Day 215: Iran says received US response to its proposal to end war

Day 214: Iran threatens strikes as it awaits US response to Hormuz plan

Day 213: Iran supreme leader says US will be forced out of Middle East

Day 212: Trump expects talks with Iran to resume in coming week

Day 211: US military activity surges around Strait of Hormuz

Day 210: Trump discusses Iran conflict with Xi Jinping