Palestinian uprising may intensify during Ramadan

Inflamed religious feelings during the holy month of Ramadan could intensify the Palestinian uprising in the West Bank and Gaza if Israeli troops do not withdraw from friction points, Palestinian analysts say.

The conduct of the Palestinian "Intifada" during Ramadan, which begins on Monday, will also hinge on whether Israel allows Palestinians to pray at the ancient Al Aqsa mosque in East Jerusalem, the analysts and Muslim clerics say.

Al Aqsa is one of two mosques on the Muslim holy site of Al Haram Al Sharif, also revered by Jews as the Temple Mount. Israel captured East Jerusalem in the 1967 Middle East war and annexed it in a move not recognised internationally.

"If worshippers have access to Al Aqsa, the Al Haram will be quiet, but if the Israeli police prevent them, this will complicate matters and there could be unrest, thus we ask the police not to provoke worshippers," Ikrima Sabri, the Mufti of Jerusalem, told Reuters.

Al Aqsa, within the walls of Jerusalem's Old City, is a daily focal point for thousands of worshippers during Ramadan when Muslims fast from dawn to sunset. Most Palestinians have been prevented from attending Friday prayers at Al Aqsa since Israel tightened a closure on Palestinian areas this month in what it called a security move to pre-empt rioting and shooting attacks. Palestinians consider closures collective punishment.

Sabri said Israelis were now allowing only 3,000 Palestinians to pray at Al Aqsa on Fridays. In normal times, he said about half a million worship there on that day. Since Israeli-Palestinian clashes began eight week ago after Israeli opposition hawk Ariel Sharon visited Al Aqsa, Israel has allowed only Palestinians over 45 years old to pray there.

Thousands now pray in the streets outside Jerusalem's Old City walls under the guns of watching Israeli soldiers. A spokeswoman for Jerusalem police said Palestinians would be allowed into Al Aqsa during Ramadan but whether this policy would include Fridays remained under consideration.

Eyad Sarraj, director of the Mental Health Institution in the Gaza Strip and a Palestinian human rights activist, said he expected a drop in popular street protests at Israeli army checkpoints but guerrilla warfare might continue.

Palestinian analysts and the Mufti Sabri said that according to Islam, a Muslim who dies in battle with the enemy during Ramadan gets more heavenly rewards than at other times. "Therefore the spirit of Jihad and the love for martyrdom could increase in Ramadan. But all this depends on whether Israel continues to provoke Palestinians by keeping its tanks and soldiers in sight and maintains its siege on our areas," said Zuheir Manasra, governor of the West Bank town of Jenin.

Israel and the Palestinians blame each other for the violence, and each side demands that the other side take the initiative to end eight weeks of clashes that have killed 274 people, most of them Palestinians.

Israeli commentator Danny Rubinstein wrote in Israel's moderate Ha'aretz newspaper that the "al-Aqsa Intifada" (uprising) had re-sensitised the entire Muslim world to the Palestinian problem.

"The danger of 'Islamisation' of the Israeli-Palestinian struggle thus seems today more real than ever before. The values of secular nationalism have declined in the Arab world, as they have here in Israel as well," he wrote.

"If no change occurs, the coming month of Ramadan is likely to be an especially difficult month."
The violence has shattered hopes of resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict by diplomacy but has succeeded in uniting Islamic and Arab states behind the Palestinians and their cause.

Palestinians seeking an independent state say they will press on with the Intifada until Israel withdraws troops and Jewish settlers from the entire West Bank and Gaza. They say they realised they would have no choice but to fight after Israel made clear it would keep some occupied lands in any final settlement.

"If the sides don't sit down and address the real reasons for the Intifada, then it will not end," said Palestinian political analyst Ghassan Al Khatib. Sarraj said the Intifada would continue for many more months and broaden if Palestinian national demands were not addressed. "If frustration continues to build up, the Intifada will become more radical and we'll probably end up having an Islamic Intifada," Sarraj said.