Atwan: Arab Spring benefited Al Qaida

Dubai: Contrary to the belief that Al Qaida has become weaker in the days after Osama Bin Laden, Al Qaida is stronger and more dangerous than before as there are now multiple ‘Al Qaidas’ and because they have mastered the use of the internet, said Abdul Bari Atwan.

He added the US’s biggest fear of the situation in Syria is that the weapons that reach rebel groups in Syria reach Al Qaida in Syria. Israel, he said, is also scared of a failed state in Syria because Al Qaida could reach its borders from Syria.

This was in a session of the Emirates Airline Festival of Literature, which was titled after his latest book After Bin Laden where Atwan spoke about Bin Laden the man, Al Qaida now and then and how the Arab Spring benefited Al Qaida.

Atwan has been the Editor-in-Chief of Al Quds Al Arabi since its foundation in 1989. As a journalist, writer and commentator, he is one of the world’s leading experts on Middle Eastern current affairs. He is a media consultant on Middle Eastern affairs to most networks as well as newspapers. He was the author of The Secret History of Al Qaida in 2006, A Country of Words in 2008 and After Bin Laden in 2012 in addition to a number of published studies on Middle Eastern affairs.

Atwan also spent three days with Bin Laden in the caves of Tora Bora in Afghanistan in 1996.

Moderator Naoufer Afli, television anchor at Dubai Media Incorporated, said that many people say that Atwan is a “political oracle” as he predicted various political changes before they happened such as the Arab Spring. She added that after reading his book After Bin Laden, she does believe that he indeed is a “political oracle.”

Atwan said that what makes Al Qaida more dangerous than before is that it was no longer a pyramid built organisation with a clear hierarchy. “Back in the day Al Qaida had one main address — Tora Bora Mountains fourth cave on the right — but now it is a flat loose organisation and has become decentralised; There was one Qaida, now there is Al Qaida in Iraq, in Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, in the Islamic Maghreb, in the coast of Africa — also Uzbekistan and China.”

He likened Al Qaida to the Hydra monster, that when you “cut off one head, five others grow back”. He added that the Arab Spring benefited Al Qaida, because failed states are a “fertile land and a good climate for Al Qaida to grow”. He gave examples of Yemen and Somalia and Syria.

In Syria, Atwan said, there are multiple factions of Al Qaida, but they have different names, such as Al Nusrah Front. “The new generations of Al Qaida do not carry the name of Al Qaida, so they would not carry the burden related to the name.”

To join Al Qaida now, Atwan said, there is no need for one to go undergo ideological training in Afghanistan like before.

“Al Qaida is now online and people think that people in Al Qaida are illiterate and uneducated — no. I was surprised that Bin Laden was surrounded by brilliant Arab and Gulf minds.”

“They have an unbelievable ability to reach people and overcoming international intelligence agencies in social media,” Atwan added.