Analysis: LFO impasse - Musharraf holds all the cards

The grinding deadlock over the Legal Framework Order, which the government says is part of the constitution and the opposition say is not, has created a messy situation for both the sides involved in the conflict.

Neither of them has an easy way out from the impasse over the constitutional amendments, analysts say.

President General Pervez Musharraf seems unlikely to exchange his military uniform for civilian garb. And this he has categorically stated both in public as well as in private conversations with politicians and journalists.

Musharraf knows that the moment he announces a new army chief his position would be worth little. In his own words "all politicians would start lining up in front of the new army chief, the moment he quits the army", sources close to him said.

He and his team still firmly believe that the post of president and army chief should be kept as one to ensure the continuity of reforms, which have helped improve the country's economy. The establishment also does not want to trust elected politicians with a parliament, which is all-powerful and is not accountable to any other institution.

Former premier Nawaz Sharif's headlong confrontation with one institution after another and the resulting crisis has taught the establishment a lesson - to avoid a military coup, the presidential powers to dismiss governments and dissolve parliament are a must.

The establishment is expected to make a concession on the issue of the National Security Council, but it wants parliament not to challenge any of the amendments, ordinances and laws formulated during the three years of military rule.

On the other hand, opposition parties have committed themselves too much in public to opposing these amendments and any retreat would mean that they wreck their image in public.

The fact that no easy solution appears possible is acknowledged by the main players in both the opposition and the government. But the three major opposition groups - the six-party alliance of the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party and Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League have their own private agendas in dealing with the government.

The PPP's public posturing is very tough - it is opposed to a president in military uniform. The PPP wants any constitutional amendments be placed before the parliament for validation in accordance with the procedure laid down in the constitution.

But on some issues including the amendments on the joint electorate, increase in the seats for women and religious minorities, Bhutto's party has announced it would support the government.
But it will not budge on those amendments, which undermine the supremacy of parliament. These are the President's controversial powers to dismiss the government and dissolve the parliament and the National Security Council.

The party is reportedly holding secret negotiations with the government aiming to win freedom for Bhutto's jailed spouse Asif Ali Zardari and ensure their leader's return to the country. In recent weeks, senior army officials have held a series of secret meetings with Zardari, sources in the party and the government say.

If the government fails to strike a deal with the PPP, it would attempt more defections in its ranks to ensure smooth sailing of the status quo, PPP official said.

The PML-N, though part of the committee discussing the amendments, is expected to continue to firmly oppose the president with its slim presence of 18 members in the parliament.

There is no common ground. "Our position regarding the constitution remains unchanged," Javed Hashmi, president of Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif group) told Gulf News. "We want a constitution as it stood on October 12, 1999. We cannot accept Musharraf as the president with or without uniform. He is a usurper."