A cautiously optimistic outlook

The UAE is engaged in a race against time. Its residents know that the race between harmony and discord will be tight, but on the whole they are cautiously optimistic.

They believe that rising prosperity, better public services and greater cultural diversity will be the abiding features of the UAE's future.

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That is the clear conclusion from the first in a series of YouGov surveys for Gulf News. YouGov recently questioned 837 residents throughout the UAE. Behind the optimistic smiles lie some deep-seated worries.

For example:

• Two-thirds of UAE residents think that one of the best things about living in the Gulf is that "it is peaceful and safe" but almost half the public fear that crime will get worse over the next two-to-three years.
  
• A large majority of workers feel secure in their jobs, and almost half expect their pay to grow by ay least 10 per cent in the coming 12 months but most tenants fear that their rents will also rise by more than 10 per cent.
  
• Predictions of economic growth over the next three years average 10 per cent, but there are widespread fears that the UAE will also be infested by the viruses of corruption, congestion and pollution.

Currently, the greatest advantage people feel about living in the Gulf is that it is "peaceful and safe". This ranks highest of eleven attributes for both men and women, for all age groups, and for Arabs, westerners and Indians and Pakistanis alike.

In second place people cited the fact "there is little crime", which helps explain why a majority feel life in the UAE is peaceful and safe.

Close behind in third place comes "high standard of living". Again, these factors score highly among all groups.

For the moment, the promise politicians the world over like to make "peace and prosperity" is a reality for many people living in the Gulf. But will it last?

YouGov asked people to peer into the future. What things do they expect to improve over the next 2-3 years, and what do they expect to get worse?

Things will get better

Optimism is greatest in relation to leisure activities and public transportation. In both cases, majorities expect things to get better; few expect things to get worse.

This is in all probability is linked to the announcements of both road expansion and the Dubai Light Railway, due to start carrying passengers from 2009.

There is muted optimism in regard to local education, healthcare, the police, bureaucracy, traffic policing and the ease of obtaining a UAE visa. With each of these, optimists clearly outnumbered pessimists.

With "equality" and the quality of new housing, the numbers of optimists and pessimists are about equal (though women have fewer hopes than men for improved equality).

With terrorism, the proportion of pessimists, at 27 per cent, is not particularly high; but only 9 per cent expect things to improve on this front, so the overall balance is plainly negative.

On five other issues, pessimists significantly outnumber the optimists. These are: job security, corruption, traffic, crime and most negative of all pollution.

This list provides a clear agenda for action, to prevent the UAE from suffering the expected negative side-effects of rising prosperity. Any administration that tackles these issues effectively is likely to win the appreciation of people from all backgrounds and all nationalities.

If our respondents are right, and economic growth continues at a healthy rate, then, coupled with high oil prices, the resources will be available. The challenge will be to spend them wisely.

Of course, no administration can guarantee complete job security. At present, 8 out of 10 workers say their job it "totally", "very" or "fairly" secure.

But the fragility of this mood is underlined by the fact that almost half of YouGov's respondents expect job security to decline in the years ahead.

For many people, housing is an issue that has a special impact on their daily life. YouGov asked respondents how much they expected their rent to rise over the next 12 months.

Just 13 per cent replied either that their rent was likely to fall, or that it is fixed and cannot be changed. A large proportion, 53 per cent, of the sample, and 58 per cent of those who pay rent, expect it to rise by at least 10 per cent. One in three expects their rent to rise by at least 20 per cent.

Of course, the impact of the rise in rents is less if pay rates are rising at least as fast. This is the case for some people but by no means all. Forty two per cent expect their salaries to rise by at least 10 per cent.

One person in seven expects their pay to climb by 20 per cent or more. No wonder that rent increases have become a controversial topic, with the Dubai Municipality seeking to curb rises above 20 per cent.

Peter Kellner is YouGov's chairman and one of the UK's leading research academics.