Techie Tonic: Rising brute-force attacks signal looming ransomware threats, experts warn

Dubai: Cybersecurity experts are warning that an alarming increase in brute-force login attempts could be an early warning sign of ransomware campaigns targeting businesses and public institutions.

Brute-force attacks, in which cybercriminals attempt thousands of username and password combinations to gain access to remote services like Remote Desktop Protocol (RDP), virtual private networks (VPNs), or cloud accounts, have long been a staple tactic in the hacker’s toolkit. While such attacks are not new, their rising frequency and sophistication have raised concerns about what may follow.

A digital door-knocking campaign

Unlike highly sophisticated exploits that rely on unknown vulnerabilities, brute-force methods take advantage of weak or reused passwords. Once attackers gain a foothold, they can escalate privileges, move laterally through networks, and plant ransomware payloads.

“This activity often looks like someone jiggling every lock in the neighbourhood to see if a door opens,” a common discussion in Many CXOs Group and among Cybersecurity leaders. “Unfortunately, if they find just one open door, it can lead to devastating consequences for an organization.”

Recent threat intelligence reports show a sharp rise in brute-force attacks across industries, with government agencies, hospitals, and small businesses among the most frequently targeted. Many CXO communities say this is not random noise, but part of a deliberate strategy used by both ransomware groups and so-called “initial access brokers” who specialize in selling compromised accounts to criminal networks or it could be a state sponsored activity as geo political attacks on the rise.

Ransomware’s first step

Brute-force attempts are often the earliest observable indicator of a larger threat. Once attackers successfully compromise an account, ransomware deployment can follow in a matter of days or even hours. The sequence is well-documented, gain entry, disable security tools, steal sensitive data, and then launch a full-scale encryption attack.

“Large-scale brute-force activity is like smoke before the fire,” says the Many CXO communities. “It doesn’t always mean an attack is imminent, but it significantly raises the likelihood.”

High-profile ransomware incidents in the past, including attacks on municipal governments and critical infrastructure providers, have frequently been traced back to poorly secured remote services. In many cases, investigators found that brute-forcing or credential-stuffing attacks had been used to gain initial access. “We must note, we humans are the weakest in the chain”.

The growing cost of inattention

The financial and operational costs of ransomware are staggering. According to a 2024 report by Cyber-Risk Alliance, global ransomware damages exceeded $30 billion, with recovery costs often dwarfing the ransom itself. For small and medium-sized businesses, a single breach can be existential.

“Organizations sometimes underestimate brute-force activity because it seems routine,” said CXO communities. “But in today’s threat landscape, ignoring those failed logins could be the mistake that brings down your entire operation.”

Defenses and early warnings

Many CXO community experts recommend that organizations treat a sudden spike in brute-force activity as a red flag requiring immediate action. Key defense strategies include enforcing multi-factor authentication (MFA), limiting exposure of remote access services, and monitoring for unusual login patterns such as access from foreign countries or at unusual hours and clear direction for maintaining “Least privileges”.

Security teams are also advised to implement account lockout policies, use intrusion detection systems, and maintain robust logging to spot follow-up activity like privilege escalation or lateral movement.

“Think of brute-force attacks as reconnaissance,” saying Many CXOs. “They are the adversary’s way of knocking on your doors and windows. If you see more knocking than usual, it’s time to tighten security and prepare for the possibility of a break-in.”

A call to vigilance

As ransomware groups continue to evolve, brute-force attacks remain one of their simplest and most effective tools for gaining entry. With the line between harmless scanning and active intrusion increasingly blurred, security experts argue that organisations cannot afford to ignore the warning signs.

“Not every brute-force attempt will lead to ransomware, but every successful ransomware attack probably started with one.”

For businesses and public institutions alike, the message is clear, vigilance against brute-force attacks is not optional. It is the first line of defense in preventing ransomware from turning a nuisance into a crisis.