Race to No 1: Elena Rybakina edges closer to Aryna Sabalenka

Several firsts await Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina after the world No 2 survived a huge scare to battle into the Canadian Open quarter-finals on Sunday in Toronto.

The 27-year-old from Kazakhstan recovered from 0-3 and two breaks down in the final set to beat Liudmila Samsonova 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 and will face four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka for the first time in her career.

Rybakina will also be eyeing another first as she hopes to go deeper into the draw. With world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka ousted in the Round of 16, continuing her worrying form in the run-up to the US Open, where the Belarusian is a two-time defending champion, a win in Toronto would take the 2022 Wimbledon champion to 8,666 points, leaving her just four behind Sabalenka heading into Cincinnati.

Rybakina has never reached No 1, but Sabalenka’s early exit in Toronto, which followed her quarter-final exit at Roland Garros and Round of 16 departure at Wimbledon, has suddenly made the possibility much more immediate. Even with the ranking gap reduced so drastically, Rybakina said she does not want to allow the race to affect her approach in Toronto, particularly because she still believes there are elements of her game that need improvement.

“I try not to think about it because still a lot of matches I gotta win, and I was not playing that well grass-court season as I wanted, so for me the most important now is to see the improvement. We worked hard the last couple of weeks coming here to this US Swing, so for me it's important to just see the improvement.”

Nevertheless, her comeback against Samsonova has already provided an important boost.

“I think what I am most proud about is that even while losing 3-0 in the third, I managed to win. And as I said, was a bit unlucky in the first few games because it was net cord and it didn't go my way, but then I knew that if I'm going to fight, I can try to turn it around, so I'm glad it happened.”

The victory also matters because Rybakina said she had struggled to convert some recent close matches, making the ability to recover against Samsonova particularly valuable ahead of the US Open. “Definitely matches like this give you confidence,” Rybakina added.

Sabalenka’s major successes over the years have all come on hard courts, precisely why her form in Toronto has raised eyebrows. Her hold on the No 1 ranking goes back two years, but it all seems to be unravelling for her right now.

Cincinnati could become the next major checkpoint in the ranking race. Rybakina reached the quarter-finals there in 2025, while Sabalenka will also have points to defend, meaning the battle could remain extremely tight even if Rybakina wins in Toronto. The US Open may ultimately provide the decisive stage, with Sabalenka defending her title and Rybakina able to move closer with every victory.