ESPN's computer model predicts the winner of 2026 WNBA Finals

Dubai: The 2026 WNBA Finals will feature two teams chasing their first championship, with the Golden State Valkyries and Atlanta Dream earning their places after impressive runs through the playoffs. Both sides completed semifinal sweeps to set up a best-of-seven series beginning on October 17.

Golden State booked its place in the championship series by eliminating defending champions Las Vegas Aces, while Atlanta ended the New York Liberty’s campaign. The Finals will also mark a historic moment for the Valkyries, who are reaching the title series in just their second season in the league. Atlanta, meanwhile, are back in the Finals for the first time since 2013.

According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) computer model, the Valkyries enter the series as favourites, with a 62.2 per cent chance of winning the championship. The Dream have a 37.8 per cent probability of lifting the trophy, according to the model’s projections.

Golden State reached the Finals after defeating the Dallas Wings in three games in the first round before sweeping the Aces 3-0 in the semifinals.

Atlanta have been equally impressive. The Dream swept the Washington Mystics in the opening round before completing a 3-0 series victory over New York. Their 85-83 win in Game 3 sealed their return to the Finals after 13 years.

Angel Reese has been central to Atlanta’s playoff run. The forward scored 22 points in the series-clinching victory over the Liberty, helping the Dream withstand a late fightback. Reese joined Atlanta after being traded by the Chicago Sky ahead of the 2026 season and has strengthened the team’s presence inside.

With both franchises still seeking their first WNBA title, the Finals offer an opportunity to make history. ESPN’s model gives Golden State the statistical edge, but Atlanta’s unbeaten postseason record suggests the series could be closely contested.