Why Venezuela was a 'black swan', possible future shocks and the price we all pay

The term 'black swan' originally meant something impossible. It comes from a line by the Roman poet Juvenal, written at a time when people believed all swans were white because no other kind had ever been seen. That belief changed in 1697 when black swans were discovered in Australia. This discovery showed that assumptions based on limited evidence can be wrong, and that a single new fact can overturn long-held beliefs.

'Black swan' is now used for events that seem to come from nowhere but change the course of history. The coronavirus outbreak, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the jump in AI technology are all recent events that have rocked the globe and changed lives both directly and indirectly . They are 'black swan' moments that will be looked back on as pivotal shifts in how the world functions, from the rise in working-from-home to robots doing human jobs.   

Venezuela seems to be the latest anomaly in the proverbial swan lake as the arrest of the country's president, Nicolás Maduro , shocked the world just days into January. Few of us will have gone to sleep at the end of 2025 thinking the USA would soon be putting itself in charge of the South American country's vast oil reserves, which are thought to be the largest in the world.

It may take months or years to fully understand the knock-on impact of such a move but one thing is for sure; it will impact all of our lives in some way due to how all countries and economies are intrinsically connected. Just about all economies rely on oil in some form, along with the fluctuations of its supply levels and price, which is why we've been looking at what it could mean for motorists in the UAE as a starting point. We will have to wait and see what the other ramifications are over time.

Are there more 'black swans' on the way this year? We do seem to be in a period of significant and accelerated change where we have to get used to these shifts becoming the norm, in the short term at least, just as those explorers in Australia had to change their perceptions more than 300 years ago. It will certainly keep the Gulf News newsroom busy. Greek philosopher Heraclitus wasn't wrong when he said 'the only certainty is change'. I may make that my motto of 2026.

There's a lot to be said for stability and reliability; a peaceful lake of white swans. While the world continues to be in flux, the UAE has seen great stability over the last couple of decades. This week we have celebrated 20 years since His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Ruler of Dubai, became Prime Minister of the UAE. The economic growth, rise in quality of life and influx of people to the city has been immense in that period. Few people in history can claim to have managed such change in such a short period of time.

On a personal front, my free time has been taken up by children's football as my eldest son tries to find a team to play for in Dubai. I coached children’s football in the UK and it was a fantastic and challenging experience (especially when the snow is blowing sideways and feet are slowly turning numb). It will be a refreshing change to be cheering from the sunny sidelines here in the UAE.

Warm regards,
Mark Thompson, Editor-in-Chief
Gulf News