Will Brown face the axe?

I have a hunch, just a small one, that Labour MPs will be glancing nervously at their diaries as Thursday, June 4, approaches. For on that date Labour is almost certainly going to suffer a devastating defeat in local and European elections; a defeat that could prove fatal to both Gordon Brown's chances of remaining British prime minister and Labour's chances of staying in government.

And Labour only has itself to blame. They have been in power for so long they have become complacent; worse still they have become arrogant.

The perilous state of the British economy is the main reason voters want change. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling predicted during his Budget speech on Wednesday that Britain would emerge from recession next year. But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) wasted no time in contradicting that forecast with a report predicting the UK economy will shrink by 4.1 per cent in 2009 and 0.4 per cent in 2010. It added Britain will suffer a 'quite severe' recession with unemployment rising into 2011.

But it's not just the economy, stupid; it is the sheer arrogance and incompetence of Labour ministers that is infuriating British voters. It's not all Brown's fault: it's Jacqui Smith's, it's Damian McBride's, and it's Peter Hain's among others.

Labour has been in power for so long its MPs seem to think they have developed an aura of invincibility. Ministers are breaking the rules and flouting regulations in a nonchalant manner on a routine basis. Smith's husband watches pornographic movies while she's serving the country as Home Secretary.

Who cares? Nobody. But voters do care that she thinks it's fine to make taxpayers fund her broadband internet connection. Nobody knows what Smith does for the country anymore; her name is synonymous with manipulating the system. Smith has to go.

McBride brought the whole culture of Downing Street into the open when his e-mails containing slurs about prominent Conservatives, including Opposition Leader David Cameron and Shadow Chancellor George Osborne, were intercepted and exposed by a political blogger. This nothing new in politics, but the nature of these allegations, which are completely unfounded, show a deeply malicious side to the prime minister's closest aides and advisers. McBride had to go.

Hain resigned from several posts including his position as work and pensions secretary earlier this year after he was accused of not reporting £100,000 (Dh550,000) in contributions. The Electoral Commission referred the matter to the police. Hain had to go.

The government is seldom mentioned in association with the main issues of the day anymore. All we hear about is incompetence, blunders, and 'matters of great regret'.

There is a desperate need for change. Not necessarily a change of leader; a change in culture and attitude. A lot of people remain unconvinced about Cameron and doubt whether he has what it takes to become prime minister.

The Tories are no better when it comes to matters of sleaze and corruption either. Osborne was mired in controversy in October last year when he spent time on a yacht in Corfu with the richest man in Russia discussing a large donation.

Brown has enjoyed a bounce in the polls of late, largely thanks to his handling of the economy and on Tuesday he acknowledged that voters had lost confidence in the way the MP's expenses system is operated. Ministers will vote next week on whether to abolish the controversial second home allowance; a proposal that has already provoked a reaction among Labour backbenchers.

Brown's announcement signalled a change of tack, perhaps a realisation he was spending too much time trying to defuse damaging revelations rather than focusing on the important issues.

Ministers have to get behind their leader and cut out all the wrongdoing if Labour is to have any chance of securing a fourth consecutive term at the next general election.

But the big question is: Will Labour persist with Brown or turn to someone else?

All will become clear on June 4.