Political tide is turning in France

In Parisian cafés, it is already designated as Le Vaterrguet Francais (The French Watergate) while political salons are abuzz with rumours of impending resignation by Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin and even President Jacques Chirac.

"This is the most serious crisis the Fifth Republic has experienced," says Francois Bayrou, a member of parliament and leader of the centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF).

"Heads must roll," adds Jack Lang, another parliamentarian and a leader of the opposition Socialist Party.

But what is all the fuss about?

The affaire started with leaks to the press about an alleged plot hatched at the highest levels of the state to discredit a number of political figures including Interior Minister Nicholas Sarkozy.

The idea was to forge a list to show that Sarkozy and others targeted by Chirac had maintained illegal accounts with an investment company based in Luxembour. If true, the allegations could have ended Sarkozy's political career and even landed him in prison for several years on charges of money laundering and tax fraud. But why would Chirac and de Villepin want to discredit Sarkozy who is, after all, a member of their Cabinet and leader of the political party to which they both belong?

The answer is simple: Chirac is determined to bloc Sarkozy's road to becoming the party's candidate in next year's presidential election.

But why does Chirac hate Sarkozy so much? The hatred goes back to 1995 when Sarkozy, having long been a protégé of Chirac, suddenly betrayed him by backing the presidential candidacy of the then prime minister Edourad Baladur.

Those who know Chirac know that he never forgives those who act against him. As things turned out Chirac won the presidency and pushed Sarkozy out of both the government and the party leadership. The conventional wisdom at the time was that Sarkozy was finished. And for almost five years that seemed to be the case.

Chirac, however, had underestimated the resilience of Sarkozy, a hyperactive and extremely ambitious politician of Hungarian origin, who has been determined to become president of the French Republic all his adult life. By 2000 Sarkozy was not only back under the limelight but strong enough to wrest the leadership of the party away from Chirac and his protégés.

By 2004 Sarko, as his friends call him, was the de facto leader of the moderate right in France and its most popular potential presidential candidate.

Even then Chirac was not prepared to forget Sarko's " treachery". Having given Sarko a seat in the Cabinet for a while, Chirac soon forced him out as the first step towards divesting him of the party leadership as well. But, once again, Chirac had underestimated Sarko. The wiry "little man", was soon back in the Cabinet while keeping the leadership of the party.

Possible alternative

Chirac then decided to promote one of his "sherpas" as a possible alternative to Sarkozy. He chose de Villepin, a technocrat with no political experience, who had served as chief of staff at the presidential palace for years. To give

de Villepin maximum exposure, Chirac named him foreign minister and put him in charge of saving Saddam Hussain from "regime change" in 2002.

De Villepin won brownies from his boss by waging a determined campaign against the United States and in the hope of preventing the liberation of Iraq. When operation "Save Saddam" failed, Chirac moved de Villepin to the interior ministry and, eventually, made him prime minister. Soon, however, de Villepin's lack of political experience began to show as he believed that things could be done simply by willing them.

The parliament, which has never had much of a role in France under its Gaullist constitution, was marginalised further while the tradition of consulting with" social partners", that is to say trade unions and associations, was set aside. The Cabinet and the majority party were also kept in the dark over key government decisions. It was Saddam-style decision-making with a French flavour.

This style of rule built a lot of tension at all levels of French society, finally kicking the lid off with nationwide riots earlier this year. The immediate excuse for the riots was a law to slightly facilitate the hiring and firing of young workers. But the real cause was a general feeling that France was being governed like an absolute monarchy. Coming soon after last November's riots in the predominantly Muslim suburbs, this year's protest movement revealed the fundamental flaws of Chiraquie, a term that designates Chirac's 11-year long presidency.

Even against such a background of rising tension, Chirac was unable to forget his vendetta. His friends in the media did all they could to exploit Sarko's family troubles.

Chirac and de Villepin, of course, claim that they knew nothing of the plot to discredit Sarko. Their claim received a major blow last week when General Philippe Rondot, a former head of the secret services, decided to speak out.

In a newspaper interview Rondot said he recalled a meeting chaired by de Villepin in which the prime minister evoked "the possibility of linking Sarkozy's name" to illegal funds invested through the Luxembourgian company. Worse still, Rondot recalled that de Villepin had claimed that Chirac was interested in the matter.

Chirac's determination to destroy Sarkozy and propel de Villepin into the presidency next year has another, deeper, motive. For the past five years Chirac has been under investigation on a number of charges of corruption, the illegal funding of his party, the misappropriation of public funds and influence peddling during his 20-year career as mayor of Paris. If convicted on any of those charges Chirac would risk losing his civil rights and going to prison. To avoid that fate, Chirac managed to persuade the Constitutional Council to pass a decree that forbids the prosecution of a sitting president, thus effectively putting him above the law. But once his presidential term is over Chirac would have to face the courts almost immediately. The only way to avoid that is to get an unconditional and comprehensive pardon from the new president. This is why Chirac wants de Villepin to be the next president.

The abuse of power in the service of personal interests is nothing new in the Fifth Republic.

The current scandal is the latest symptom of a deeper institutional malaise. In the past 20 years, France as a society has matured into a modern democracy while its political institutions remain those of an autocracy. Inadvertently, Chirac and de Villepin, little more than a ventriloquist's dummy, may have done France a service by forcing the nation to do something about its outdated institutions.

Author and journalist Amir Taheri is a member of Benador Associates.