Outlook on war and peace

This month's Gulf News/YouGov poll, carried out between August 4 and 7, looked at public opinion on the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

It revealed a pessimistic outlook on the probability of eventual peace, extremely critical attitudes towards actions or inaction of the US and Arab world, and pronounced divides (across nationality) on the nature and perceived legitimacy of Hezbollah. We present the findings below:

The majority of respondents identify Hezbollah as a "resistance movement", a sizeable lead over those placing it in the terrorist or political party category.

That said, a very slim majority don't agree with the objectives of Hezbollah and are neutral (in their personal opinion) towards the organisation.

Nearly half of the Arab respondents have a high opinion of Hezbollah, as compared to westerners.

Likewise, most Arabs agree with Hezbollah's objectives compared to westerners, and while very few Arabs place Hezbollah in the category of a "terrorist organisation", nearly half of westerners believe the same.

The majority of respondents believe current events will result in increased Arab support for Hezbollah and decreased global support for Israel.

Interestingly, more westerners than Arabs hold these beliefs, which in this instance may be reflective of a very critical stance towards US policy in the Middle East.

Eventual peace

Outlook on the probability of eventual peace is negative. While the majority of respondents believe the present conflict will continue for 1-2 months, a sizeable majority believe there can never be peace or trust between Israel and the Arab world.

Neither US policy nor the Arab response on the present situation is seen favourably by respondents. Barely anyone believes Arab countries have done all they can, while just under half believe they could do more in terms of bringing peace and financial aid.

Correspondingly, the majority believe the Arab world should become more involved in the conflict through the Arab League and believe this would help resolve the situation (a belief consistent across all nationalities).

However, differences are evident on the particularities of prescribed action. The majority of western respondents believe the Arab world should take the initiative and negotiate a long-term peace treaty with Israel, while Arab respondents advice reducing dependency on western products and services, shortly followed by the option of creating an oil embargo on the West.

In this respect, while consensus is certainly evident on particular issues, the "nationality factor" produces, as is often the case, Arab-Western polarisation on the question of conflict resolution in the Middle East.