Libya grappling with discontent

The perceived inability of Libya's transitional government to address serious economic and security problems is causing a groundswell of discontent that threatens national stability, officials and diplomats warn.

Buoyed by the defeat of Muammar Gaddafi's forces in Tripoli last August, many Libyans expected the National Transitional Council to move quickly to check the economic decline caused by the civil war and to disarm militias. "We have a backlash and discontent brewing, especially in Benghazi," said one council official who spoke on condition that his name not be used.

"In the rest of the country, the situation is at best fragile. People are not happy at all."

A western diplomat in Benghazi, who asked not to be identified, said that workers at state-owned hotels in the city had gone on strike, and that students at the university had begun setting up committees to seek the dismissal of lecturers.

During a visit to the university on January 19, Abdul Hafiz Goga, the council's vice-president, was roughed up by angry students. He has since resigned his post. The incidents are particularly embarrassing for the council, as Benghazi, the cradle of the Libyan revolution, is still the council's main powerbase.

"Frankly, the council is at a bit of a loss," this diplomat said. "There's enough fault lines in the social fabric, there's enough unresolved issues among the regions ... that might spark an unmanageable situation."

Despite the widespread discontent, residents in many towns say that security seems to be improving. Alamin Akrim, a hotel worker in Tajoura, an anti-Gaddafi stronghold just outside Tripoli, said the coastal town had been peaceful for some time.

"The guns and shooting every night _ it's disappeared. I'm not hearing it any more," he said. "People are looking forward to starting to build up the city." Walid Ebrahim Habibi, an electrical engineer in Tajoura, agreed.

"Day by day, things are getting better," he said. But others warn that the various armed groups left over from the fight against Gaddafi still pose a serious long-term threat.

The transitional government is struggling to assert its authority and rein in the many unofficial armed groups that remain at large. But it's not clear they have the power to do so. "The national army is ... not fully united," said Adam Ahmad, an American of Libyan descent and a former rebel fighter. "The government now is very toothless." As well as extending its control over security, the council needs to rebuild the economy if it wants to remain in control.

New constitution

The unfreezing of the Gaddafi regime's overseas assets may help kick-start the economy. An estimated $150 billion (Dh550 billion) in assets were frozen when the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on the Libyan administration last year. On January 10, Foreign Minister Ashour Bin Khayyal announced that Libya had received $20 billion as a first instalment of unfrozen funds.

And while Libya's oil exports are climbing, they still remain below pre-revolution levels, putting a major crimp in the government's major source of revenue. With many foreigners still hesitant to invest in the country's infrastructure, no one seems to know when oil production will be restored to full capacity.

Faced with seemingly intractable economic problems, the council appears to be focusing on making a successful transition to democracy. It has proposed holding elections for a general assembly that would convene in the coming months to draft a new constitution.

Parliamentary elections would be held in 2013. All this will take time and patience, unlike oil, is something that Libya does not currently have in abundance. "A lot of people ... want everything to happen so fast, and that's just not going to happen," said Ahmad, the former rebel fighter. "The Libyan government is at its baby stage. It's not even crawling."

— Los Angeles Times

William Shaw writes for The Institute for War & Peace Reporting, a non-profit organisation that trains journalists in areas of conflict.