Iranian issue is not just nuclear

The proposed package of incentives to Iran seems to be a good step to diffuse the on-going crisis of its nuclear programme.

However, prospects for a solution are not great. The proposal is a modification of a previous one that was presented by the Group of Six, which comprise the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - the US, China, Russia, France, Britain, plus Germany - that Tehran had refused.

This time, the European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana who carried the proposal to Tehran said that the incentives mean a full acknowledgement of Iran's right to civilian nuclear energy programme. The price is that Iran halt uranium enrichment, that can be used to produce a fine grade fuel for nuclear warheads.

Solana told a press conference after meeting Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and the country's top nuclear negotiator:

"We are ready to cooperate with Iran in the development of a modern nuclear energy programme based on the most modern generation of light water reactors". He also added: "We can offer Iran legally binding fuel supply guarantees".

So, if it is true that Iran only wants to produce power by nuclear means and is not intended to produce nuclear weapons why it might not accept these incentives?

Just before Solana started his Tehran meetings, an Iranian government spokesman said Iran would look at the offer, but if it included suspension of uranium enrichment it was "not debatable".

Iran cannot argue that the West might not live to its promises and strip the Islamic Republic of nuclear capabilities. Everybody knows that acquiring such technology is an irreversible process. If they did not get the civilian reactors and the needed fuel, they can easily go back to their old route.

Most probably, the issue with Iran is not its nuclear programme and whether it is peaceful or military oriented. It seems to be just a bargaining chip in a wider deal that is relevant to the US strategy in the region.

No doubt there are other parts of the proposed package that has to do with monitoring Iranian activities and infringing with sovereign matters. Again, if it is only the goal of producing power by nuclear means, there is no harm in Iran accepting the latest offer.

Why Tehran would be stubborn to decline that offer and embrace for a new round of sanctions. The Iranians are not accepting the unconditional subjugation to be part of the American plan for the region.

If they are to help America in Iraq, stop aiding Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine against Israel and pressure Syria to go for a peace deal with Israel, they need a price in return. Such price ca not be allowing them to do what they already acquired: nuclear energy production.

The issue of the Iranian nuclear programme is no more than a spin, like the famous lie of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. The spin is from both sides; US and Israel using it to pressure Iran to succumb for nothing and Tehran using it as a bargain for a return to its inclusion in an "Americanised" region.

Meanwhile, the Arabs are being scared by a "potential" Iranian nuclear bomb and diverted from an "actual" Israel threatening them already under American auspices.

Despite patriotic rhetoric from Tehran and disinformation from Washington, the nuclear issue is not that important in the struggle between the Islamic Republic and the West.

If the Iranians got the opportunity to talk directly to the Americans (or even to the Israelis - and forget the divine slogans of Iranian leaders) a compromise could be reached. Iran could be part of a new Middle East the way Turkey is, even without a regime change, which seems to be the ultimate goal of the US and Israel.

The problem is that the US and Israel want an Iranian surrender not cooperation. Tehran sees itself a regional power that should not be ignored, and if you want a deal with it you ought to give something in return.

To sort out this issue, America can negotiate a deal with Iran tomorrow and Tehran would not hesitate to accept the Israelis building their nuclear reactors for energy production - not only the French or the British. But it does not look like the dominant powers want a deal and insist on unconditional surrender.

Dr Ahmad Mustafa is London-based Arab writer.