Bush has few Iran options

As Iran takes a step closer to developing nuclear capacity, US President George W. Bush finds his options ever more constricted. The Iranians seem unfazed by UN statements. The Russians and Chinese won't go along with economic sanctions. And the generals at the Pentagon hate the idea of a military strike.

The White House declared on Wednesday that "it is time for action'' by the UN Security Council and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called on it to take "strong steps'' to force Tehran to abandon uranium enrichment. But even as Europeans, Russians and Chinese expressed disapproval of Iran's latest move, there were no signs of consensus on what to do about it.

The central problem for Bush, according to aides and analysts, is that Iran has proven impervious so far to the diplomatic levers Washington and its partners have been willing to use. Some administration officials have grown increasingly sceptical that a solution can be found, raising the prospect that, like North Korea before it, a second member of the trio of rogue states Bush once dubbed the "axis of evil'' might ultimately develop a nuclear bomb over US objections.

Bush is especially frustrated at Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has abandoned negotiations with Europeans and defied international pressure while talking of wiping Israel "off the map''. Bush's chief political adviser, Karl Rove, complained during a Houston appearance on Wednesday that it is hard to find a diplomatic resolution because Ahmadinejad "is not a rational human being''.

That has left Bush with few attractive alternatives. "At this point, your options seem to be not good and scarce,'' said Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Your other option is living with it ... and I think that's what will happen.''

"Their Plan A is to put incremental pressure on Iran so it will cave,'' said retired Air Force Colonel P.J. Crowley, a National Security Council aide under President Clinton who now works at the liberal Centre for American Progress. "And there is no Plan B.''

Standoff

Iran escalated the standoff by announcing that it has enriched uranium in a 164-centrifuge network to 3.5 per cent. If true the achievement would be a milestone but not one that necessarily makes a bomb imminent.

Mohammad Al Baradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, headed to Tehran and his inspectors are expected to report on whether the Iranian claims are true. But the announcement electrified the diplomatic circuit and highlighted the challenge to Bush. British, French and German officials all criticised Iran for "going in precisely the wrong direction'', as German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier put it. Russia and China also called the development unwelcome, but still resisted a tough UN response.

The UN Security Council in a presidential statement last month gave Iran 30 days to suspend uranium enrichment, a deadline that expires on April 28, but it threatened no consequences if Tehran disobeys. Rice said on Wednesday that the latest announcement means the council must do more to enforce its will.

Diplomats from the United States, Europe, Russia and China agreed on Wednesday to meet about Iran next Tuesday on the sidelines of a scheduled Moscow meeting of G-8 nations. In the meantime, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan urged all sides "to cool down on the rhetoric and not to escalate''.

Analysts said Iran might have made its announcement to respond to the reports on US military options, in effect saying airstrikes would not stop their programme because they now possess enough knowledge to reincorporate it.

Bush has dismissed suggestions of airstrikes as "wild speculation'' and emphasised diplomacy. If he cannot convince Russia and China to toughen UN pressure on Iran, though, he has few options, analysts said. He could organise economic sanctions with a "coalition of the willing'' in tandem with the Europeans. Or he could offer Iran a more substantive deal.

Richard Haass, a former top Bush State Department official, proposed a package in which Iran would be allowed "very limited enrichment'' subject to inspection and in exchange be given economic benefits and security guarantees. If Iran violated the terms, he said on the website of the Council on Foreign Relations, where he is president, the deal would spell out consequences including sanctions and "conceivably military force.''

"We've been trying coercive diplomacy and the Iranians have just sent a very clear message: 'Nice try, it just won't work'," said Clifford Kupchan, an analyst at the Eurasia Group. "The only diplomatic option we haven't tried'' is to cut a deal directly. "We might as well try putting everything on the table.''