Bihar’s verdict: A landslide that reshaped the political narrative

In the end it was a landslide win for the NDA alliance in Bihar. Despite being chief minister for nearly 20 years, Nitish Kumar showed that pro-incumbency is possible, bettering the JDU’s performance from the 2020 election. Bihar may be the poorest state in India, but for voters Nitish is clearly their choice. Here are the big takeaways:

Women voters play big role

The huge surge in women voters, who have been supporters of Nitish for his women friendly schemes for the last two decades, played a major role in the NDA victory. The Rs10,000 handed out to women right on the eve of the election was a game changer, something we have seen in several states before like Jharkhand, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. But this combined with Nitish Kumar’s long history of empowering women through bicycles and various schemes made the women vote even more decisively in favour of the NDA.

Nitish Kumar’s stunning performance

For much of this election, Nitish’s health, his alleged dementia, has been the source of much chatter, with the opposition even sharing videos to show voters he is not well. That did not work. In fact, it appears to have worked the other way. Nitish has shown his remarkable resilience in politics, despite the many political obituaries written about him. His decision to switch to the BJP alliance was clearly a smart one as both have benefited from each other in these polls.

The opposition badly needed a win

Having lost Maharashtra, Haryana and Delhi, Bihar was a chance to take the narrative back. But the Mahagathbandan (MGB) flopped. All the parties in the alliance did not do well. Even though the MGB largely held on to its vote share, the fact that they have not been able to expand beyond their traditional Muslim-Yadav vote base in Bihar is a problem. Squabbling over seats, a campaign that was lacklustre on the ground and a disconnect on issues was very visible. Rahul Gandhi was only interested in his Vote Chori (vote stealing) campaign, and Tejaswi wanted to talk about issues like jobs. After doing a Yatra on vote chori Rahul Gandhi disappeared for a while and the campaign fizzled out. While his yatras drew big crowds, this did not translate into votes. Vote chori was not a big issue amongst voters.

Prashant Kishor was a flop

Despite much buzz in the media about him, the former strategist turned politician did not do well on his debut. He tried to run a campaign that cut across caste lines but in a state where caste is so deeply entrenched, it was a tough task. He was not the kingmaker or spoiler that many had predicted he could be.

The BJP election machine remains as formidable as ever

The party leadership carpet bombed the campaign leaving nothing to chance. Rahul Gandhi meanwhile jazzed off to South America in the middle of the campaign. If someone has a good explanation as to why this was the case, do enlighten us.

Someone asked me last week why the Bihar election was such a big deal and for who. I said every election is a big deal in India. And while Bihar was important for the BJP, it was even more important for the opposition to change the narrative. They may decide to blame the election commission for the defeat which would be unfortunate. Yes there are serious questions about voter rolls and the conduct of the Election Commission has been far from fair. But there is no evidence to suggest that votes have been stolen. The word “introspection” has been used so many times. What the opposition needs is a massive overhaul.