All depends on signals from White House

Last Saturday, when he had a telephonic conversation with Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah Bin Abdul Aziz, the US President-elect, Barack Obama expected a mere exchange of polite formulae.

The conversation, to be followed by a face-to-face meeting, quickly developed into an exchange of views on "issues of importance to both sides."

According to sources, three "I"s featured in the conversation: Iran, Iraq and Islam.

The Saudi king, who has launched a new international "dialogue of religions", invited Obama to throw the US' weight behind a massive effort to improve relations between Islam and the West. He also wanted a constructive approach to challenges created by Iran's nuclear ambitions. However, it is the third "I", Iraq, that is likely to top future agenda.

When Obama launched his presidential bid in 2007, conventional wisdom was that Iraq would be the key issue in this year's elections. However, by the time Obama attended his victory rally in Chicago on November 4, Iraq had all but faded into the background, allowing conventional wisdom to claim that it no longer merited the attention it had received since 2002.

It seems that even Obama's entourage has bought into that theory. The media is full of claims by "sources close to the President-elect" that Obama will focus on the financial "meltdown" rather than Iraq or other foreign policy issues.

It is on Iraq, however, Obama could make a difference.

His original support base, the anti-war movement, still insists on a full and speedy withdrawal. Now that he is president, however, Obama no longer needs such people, at least not immediately.

One thing is certain: the US cannot terminate its military presence in Iraq within the 16-month timeframe suggested by Obama. It took the US almost 10 months to complete the build up for the initial invasion in 2003. However, going into a country is always easier than coming out. When you go in, your strength increases each day. When you leave, on the other hand, your strength decreases day by day, as fewer units and material remain to protect your positions and cover your retreat.

Obama might think that if the US managed to get half a million men out of Vietnam in two years, why should it not be able to bring 130,000 troops out of Iraq. However, Vietnam was a different story. There, American withdrawal took place, thanks to an agreement with North Vietnam and Vietcong and, in a broader context, the Soviet Union and China.

There was also the million-strong South Vietnamese army and police to cover the American retreat. In Iraq, however, there is no agreement with Al Qaida and the dormant, but always dangerous, Shiite fighters. Once they perceive that Americans are running away, they will almost certainly do whatever possible to make their retreat bloodier and more humiliating.

The only way the US could withdraw from Iraq without humiliation is to help Iraqis complete the creation of a government and an army strong enough to cover the American retreat. And, that cannot be completed in 16 months.

In Iraq, Obama has a choice. He can manufacture an American defeat or work to translate a military victory into long-term political gains for both Iraq and the US.

What matters in Iraq is not the number of American troops on the ground. Everyone in Iraq and in the Middle East as a whole understands that the US cannot be defeated on the battleground. The only force capable of defeating America is America itself.

Thus, all depends on the signals coming from the Obama administration. If the perception is that, for domestic political reasons, it prefers defeat, there will be enough forces in Iraq and throughout the region to help him secure it. If, on the other hand, the new administration opts for consolidating the victory already achieved, again it would find many forces that are prepared to help the US achieve its goal.

One encouraging sign is that Obama has stopped talking of withdrawal without any ifs and buts. Instead, he has been talking of "drawdown" and "redeployment".

Iranian author Amir Taheri is based in Europe and is a member of Benador Associates.