A recipe for future change

No one seriously doubts that the African National Congress (ANC) will emerge as the clear winner when South Africans head to the polls on Wednesday.

This is the fourth general election to be held in the country since the book of apartheid was closed in 1994. However, this time round, the Congress of the People, which broke away from the ANC last year, is threatening to bite into a significant chunk of the liberation struggle party's vote.

Be that as it may, Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma, the controversial chief of the ANC, will almost certainly become the country's next president.

Zuma, a colourful populist who entertains the crowds at his rallies with a spirited rendering of Umshini Wami (Bring Me My Machine Gun), his apartheid-era song, has just had all corruption charges against him dropped.

While he may still be considered guilty in the court of public opinion, the fact remains that Zuma is arguably the most popular politician in post-apartheid South Africa, after the legendary Nelson Mandela.

But when the election dust settles, Zuma will find himself at the helm of affairs in a country with myriad social and economic problems. The Aids pandemic is tearing South Africa's social fabric apart, with 11 per cent of the population of about 47 million being affected.

The bumbling national response so far was personified by former president Thabo Mbeki who, influenced by quasi-scientists, publicly doubted the links between HIV and Aids. He appointed a health minister who called life-saving antiretroviral drugs "poison" and faced international ridicule for advocating a diet of garlic and beetroot to prevent Aids.

However, his approach to the all-important issue of crime - 18,000 murders, 50,000 rapes a year etc - is in stark contrast to that of Mbeki. Zuma, brought up in a Zulu household with traditional African values, will adopt a more hardline stance on crime, which has reached appalling levels in the country. As the intelligence boss of the ANC during the years of struggle against the apartheid regime, he may have old-fashioned ways of dealing with criminals.

When it comes to the economy, especially in these troubled times, Zuma must ensure that he treads carefully. He just cannot tear down the pro-market policies of Mbeki - which, while creating a black middle class, still left millions in grinding poverty - and spoil South Africa's international reputation as a business-friendly destination.

At the same time, he cannot afford to offend his allies in the powerful Congress of South African Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party, both of which played a key role in toppling Mbeki from the helm in the ANC. It will be a tough balancing act for the new government, to put it mildly.

The economic meltdown in neighbouring Zimbabwe has led to the influx of millions of well-educated Zimbabweans into South Africa, Africa's largest economy. According to some estimates, these immigrants, most of them illegal, now number close to three million.

While the natural tendency of the pan-Africanist Zuma may be to stand by the regime in Harare, he is also answerable to his core constituency in South Africa.

Tensions have been growing between the Zimbabwean immigrants and the hordes of South Africa's poor, who blame these migrants for taking away jobs that are already in short supply. This may explain why Zuma came out strongly against Mbeki's 'quiet diplomacy' policy on Zimbabwe. He has called for President Robert Mugabe to step down, and is expected to take a harder line on the issue when he becomes president.

On broader foreign policy issues, analysts believe there will be a lot of pressure on the new government to focus internally. As L.N. Le Roux, Director of the Pretoria office of the Institute of Security Studies, said: "One of the reasons for the downfall of Mbeki was that he was obsessed with the G8, the G20 and other world issues. He did not focus enough attention internally. Zuma will have to rectify that."

However, Le Roux added that South Africa will continue to play a major role in the continent, through the African Union and the Southern African Development Community.

Le Roux said that there may not be any drastic change of policy on Zimbabwe when Zuma becomes president. But added that "should things go wrong in Zimbabwe, should the current peace agreement falter, there will be a lot of pressure on the new South African government and on Zuma to take a stronger line against Mugabe".

For the foreseeable future, the ANC will continue to totally dominate South African politics. But the fact remains that it cannot rest on its past laurels. It will do well to remember that with every election, its share of the popular vote may diminish.