Avatar Fire and Ash: How much must it earn to cover its $400 million budget?

Hollywood closed the year on a high note, with James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash dominating ticket sales and Timothée Chalamet scoring a win with A24’s Marty Supreme over the holiday weekend.

Cameron’s return to Pandora collected $88 million domestically over the four-day Christmas-to-Sunday stretch, including $64 million from the weekend alone, according to studio estimates. While the opening was softer than 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water, the sequel has shown remarkable staying power, dipping only 28% in its second weekend compared with a 53 per cent drop for its predecessor.

In North America, Fire and Ash has already grossed $217.7 million in just two weeks. Internationally, the film has racked up $542.7 million. But with a reported $400 million production budget—without accounting for marketing and distribution costs—Disney needs far more than headline-grabbing weekend numbers to ensure the film is a financial triumph. Industry analysts, according to Variety and Associated Press, estimate that for Fire and Ash to be considered a true box-office success, it will need to surpass $1.2–$1.3 billion globally, a threshold that would recoup costs and secure profit margins while maintaining the franchise’s blockbuster legacy.

If Fire and Ash can sustain momentum through New Year’s and into early January, it could become the first franchise in history to produce three $2 billion-plus films, a feat that would cement Pandora’s enduring appeal. So far, top international markets include China ($99.6 million), France ($54.4 million), Germany ($43.1 million), and Korea ($32.1 million), with the overseas tally showing only a modest 25% drop from opening weekend.

Meanwhile, Chalamet’s Marty Supreme emerged as a standout indie hit. Josh Safdie’s 1950s-set table tennis drama collected $27.1 million over the holiday weekend, a remarkable result for A24 and a testament to the actor’s box-office draw. With a budget of around $70 million, the film is already considered a success.

In contrast, Sony’s comedy Anaconda fell slightly short of expectations, grossing $23.7 million over four days—still solid for a genre that studios rarely bet on anymore.

As Hollywood heads into the new year, Avatar: Fire and Ash continues to underline Disney’s dominance. With a global total of $760 million after just two weekends, the sci-fi epic is well on its way to joining May’s Lilo & Stitch remake and November’s Zootopia 2 as Disney’s billion-dollar blockbusters of 2025. But for Cameron’s latest Pandora adventure, the ultimate test remains clear: surpassing the $1.2 billion mark to justify its enormous budget and live up to the franchise’s legendary box-office legacy.