UAE fuel prices out today: How much will petrol rise in November?

Dubai: UAE petrol and diesel prices for November are expected to be announced today, with another increase possible after international crude oil prices climbed sharply during October, bringing Brent close to $120 a barrel.

The UAE's monthly fuel-price announcement comes after a period of sustained pressure on global energy markets. Oil prices rose on Friday, extending gains as traders assessed Middle East supply risks and the impact of disruptions on international shipments.

Brent crude futures for December rose $2.92, or 2.54%, to $117.80 a barrel in late Friday trading. The more actively traded January contract gained $3.04 to $113.84, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced $2.66, or 2.61%, to $104.66.

Reuters reported that Brent was heading for a monthly gain of nearly 13%, while WTI was on course for a 14% increase. For UAE motorists, those movements suggest that November's fuel prices could remain under upward pressure, although the exact adjustment will only be known when the official rates are released.

How much are motorists paying now?

October fuel prices stand at Dh4.40 per litre for Super 98, Dh4.28 for Special 95 and Dh4.21 for E-Plus 91. Diesel costs Dh4.80 per litre.

These rates followed increases of 15.8% for Super 98, 16% for Special 95 and 16.6% for E-Plus compared with September. Diesel rose 11.6%.

A 60-litre fill of Special 95 currently costs Dh256.80, compared with Dh221.40 in September. The same quantity of Super 98 costs Dh264, while E-Plus costs Dh252.60.

Why oil prices matter for November

The UAE reviews retail fuel prices each month in line with international energy-market conditions. October's rise in crude prices therefore provides an important indication of the pressures facing the November pricing decision.

Brent has climbed substantially since the beginning of the month, supported by concerns over Middle East oil shipments and the cost of transporting crude. Shipping disruptions have increased freight costs and complicated the movement of oil through the region, even as Gulf producers have worked to maintain exports.

The latest rally has also pushed Brent towards $120 a barrel, a level that would represent a further increase in international energy costs if sustained. Still, movements in crude prices do not translate directly into identical changes at UAE petrol pumps. Refined-product prices and the broader monthly pricing period also influence the final adjustment.

Could petrol reach its previous record?

October's petrol prices remain below the record levels reached in July 2022. Super 98 reached Dh4.63 per litre that month, while Special 95 cost Dh4.52 and E-Plus Dh4.44.

Current prices are 23 fils below those levels for Super 98 and E-Plus, and 24 fils lower for Special 95. For November to exceed the July 2022 petrol records, Super 98 and E-Plus would each need to increase by more than 23 fils per litre, while Special 95 would need to rise by more than 24 fils.

Note: The latest oil-price rally raises the possibility of further increases, but it does not establish whether those historical levels will be exceeded.

How much could another increase cost?

A motorist filling 60 litres of Special 95 currently pays Dh256.80. An increase of 10 fils per litre would add Dh6 to that fill, while a 20-fils rise would add Dh12.

For someone buying 240 litres of petrol monthly, every additional 10 fils per litre would increase spending by Dh24, assuming consumption remains unchanged.

Note: These are illustrative calculations rather than predictions of November's official rates.

What to expect from today's announcement

The international oil-price trend during October suggests that another increase in UAE petrol and diesel prices remains possible.

Brent's monthly gains, the latest rally towards $120 and continued uncertainty surrounding Middle East shipments all point to higher international energy costs.

Note: The November fuel price announcement will depend on the pricing conditions reflected in the UAE's monthly review, rather than Friday's crude price alone.