UAE fuel prices for October: Will petrol, diesel costs rise again next month?

Dubai: UAE motorists could see fuel prices rise in October after global oil prices spent much of September at elevated levels, although improving regional supply routes could ease some of the pressure.

Brent crude rose 2.3% to $101.52 a barrel on Wednesday, reversing a recent decline. Earlier in the session, the international benchmark had slipped to $98.99.

That leaves Brent around 41% above the roughly $72 a barrel seen in late February before the Iran war. It is also about $30 higher than at the same point last year.

The latest rise follows another volatile period for oil. Brent approached $110 last week on concerns that disruption to Middle East energy exports could persist before subsequently falling back.

For the UAE, the important factor for October is not a single day's Brent price but the broader trend through September. With oil spending considerable time at elevated levels this month, the pressure on the next fuel-price review has increased.

Where UAE fuel prices stand

September prices edged up to Dh3.80 per litre for Super 98, Dh3.69 for Special 95 and Dh3.61 for E-Plus 91, while diesel costs Dh4.30.

However, petrol remains below its 2026 highs. Super 98 reached Dh3.95 in June, Special 95 Dh3.83 and E-Plus Dh3.76. Diesel peaked at Dh4.69 in April and May.

That means Super 98 would need to rise 15 fils, or about 3.9%, to return to its June high. Special 95 needs a 14-fils increase, or 3.8%, while E-Plus would need to rise 15 fils, or about 4.2%.

Current oil trends therefore raise the possibility that October petrol prices could move closer to those earlier levels.

How increase affects motorists

UAE retail fuel prices are linked to international market conditions, while refined-product prices and other factors also influence the monthly adjustment. But motorists can easily calculate the impact of different changes.

A 10-fils-per-litre increase adds Dh6 to a 60-litre fill and Dh8 to an 80-litre fill. A 20-fils rise would add Dh12 and Dh16 respectively. If petrol increased by 20 fils, for example, Super 98 would reach Dh4, Special 95 Dh3.89 and E-Plus Dh3.81. These are illustrations rather than forecasts of the official October prices.

Saudi supply offers some relief

One development working in the opposite direction is the reported restart of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, an important export route that allows crude to reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia is aiming to resume exports through the route, while Saudi Aramco has reportedly told Asian refiners that they could soon collect crude from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. That prospect has helped ease some concerns over global supplies.

But the recovery is not yet complete. Bloomberg reported that European customers have been told they will not receive oil allocations through the route in October.

This means the additional supply could help contain international prices, but may not immediately remove the broader pressure created by disruptions to Gulf exports.

Diplomacy is another variable

US-Iran talks are continuing through mediators, but there has yet to be a concrete agreement capable of removing the uncertainty surrounding regional oil supplies. That uncertainty has contributed to unusually large movements in crude prices.

Brent was around $72 before the Iran war, subsequently surged above $100 and approached $110 last week before retreating. Wednesday's rebound above $101 shows that the market remains highly sensitive to changes in the regional outlook.

What to expect for October

Based on September's oil-price trend so far, the risk of an increase in UAE fuel prices has strengthened compared with the outlook a month ago.

Brent's move above $100 is particularly relevant because international oil prices have remained elevated for a meaningful part of September rather than experiencing only a brief spike.

Still, the size and direction of October's adjustment cannot yet be determined precisely. The final days of September will matter, particularly whether Brent remains around $100, falls back towards the low $90s or rises again.

Improving Saudi export capacity could help contain prices, while progress in US-Iran diplomacy could further reduce supply concerns. Renewed disruption would have the opposite effect.

For UAE motorists, the current trend therefore points to greater upward pressure on October fuel prices, with the eventual adjustment dependent on how international energy markets develop through the remainder of September.