UAE fuel prices for November: Will petrol rise again or start falling?

Dubai: UAE petrol and diesel prices could rise again in November after Brent crude climbed above $116 a barrel last week, although a decline on Monday offered some relief ahead of the country's monthly fuel-price review.

Brent, the international oil benchmark, fell 1.4% to $110.12 a barrel on Monday, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 1.8% to $101.37.

The retreat followed Friday's 3.1% rally, when Brent settled at $116.72 a barrel. The benchmark has risen from below $97 at the beginning of October, reflecting continued concerns over Middle East oil supplies and shipping disruptions.

The increase raises the possibility of higher UAE fuel prices in November, although the final adjustment will depend on international crude and refined-product prices over the monthly pricing period.

How much are motorists paying now?

Petrol prices for October are set at Dh4.40 per litre for Super 98, Dh4.28 for Special 95, and Dh4.21 for E-Plus 91.. Diesel costs Dh4.80. The three petrol grades increased by approximately 16% from September, while diesel rose 11.6%.

A 60-litre fill of Special 95 currently costs Dh256.80, compared with Dh221.40 in September. The same quantity of Super 98 costs Dh264, while E-Plus costs Dh252.60.

If November prices increase by 10 fils per litre, motorists would pay an additional Dh6 for a 60-litre fill. A 20-fils increase would add Dh12. These are illustrative calculations, not predictions.

Why crude prices are rising

Oil prices have climbed amid concerns over the security of shipments from the Middle East, despite signs that exports from Gulf producers are recovering.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a major source of uncertainty, while attacks on vessels and regional infrastructure have increased shipping risks.

Higher freight costs are adding pressure. Goldman Sachs estimates that average global oil transportation costs have risen from approximately $3 per barrel last year to more than $20, with rates on some Middle East routes reaching $35.

The bank warned that prolonged shipping disruptions could keep crude prices above its baseline forecast of $90 a barrel by the end of 2026.

At the same time, shipping data indicate that Gulf producers have restored significant export volumes through alternative routes and adjusted operations, helping offset some supply disruptions.

Monday's drop change outlook?

Monday's fall in crude prices could ease some pressure on November fuel rates, but Brent remains substantially above its level at the beginning of October.

The UAE's monthly fuel-price mechanism reflects international market conditions rather than movements in crude prices on a single day.

As a result, the broader October trend will be more relevant to November's rates than Monday's decline alone.

Further easing in crude and refined-product prices could limit any increase. Conversely, sustained prices above $110 would maintain upward pressure.

Could petrol reach 2022 record?

October's UAE petrol prices remain below the record levels reached in July 2022, when Super 98 cost Dh4.63, Special 95 Dh4.52 and E-Plus Dh4.44.

Super 98 and E-Plus are currently 23 fils below those levels, while Special 95 is 24 fils lower.

An increase exceeding those differences would push the respective petrol grades above their July 2022 records. There is insufficient information to predict whether November's adjustment will be that large.

What to expect in November

The latest crude-price movements suggest upward pressure on UAE fuel prices remains elevated, particularly after Brent's sharp increase during October.

Higher shipping costs and continued uncertainty over Middle East supplies support that outlook. Recovering Gulf exports and Monday's decline in crude prices could help moderate the increase.

Another rise in November remains possible, but the direction and size of the adjustment cannot be confirmed until the official UAE fuel prices are announced at the end of October.