Brent crude drops to $79: Oil markets mixed as Iran, Israel announce halt of offensive, easing war fears

Oil prices were mixed in Asian trading Monday as markets weighed fresh Middle East de-escalation signals against lingering supply and security risks, with WTI edging up while Brent fell sharply and Murban also slipped, as of 10:33 am Tokyo time on June 22, 2026.

WTI crude was quoted at $75.91 a barrel, up 6 cents or 0.08%.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, stood at $79.71, down 86 cents or 1.07%, while Murban crude was at $73.63, down 30 cents or 0.41%.

The market reaction came after Iran’s military joint command said it was halting offensive operations against Israel, following hours of retaliatory strikes that had raised fears of a broader regional conflict.

The softer tone appeared to ease some of the war premium in crude, though prices remained volatile as traders assessed whether the pause would hold.

Natural gas also moved higher, rising 5.8 cents or 1.79% to 3.291.

Iran halts offensive operations against Israel

The Iranian military’s joint command announced it is halting offensive operations against Israel, hours after the two sides began trading retaliatory fire early Monday amidst on-going Iran-US talks in Switzerland.

The strikes threatened to drag the wider Middle East into a full-scale regional war, but the pause in Iranian attacks suggests a potential de-escalation.

Impact on oil prices

This ceasefire development is bullish for oil supply stability.

Reduced risk of Strait of Hormuz closure: ~20–25% of global oil passes through this chokepoint; ceasefire lowers disruption risk 

Lower war premium: Investors generally welcome the ceasefire, reducing fear-driven price spikes.

Supplies remain secure: There's no immediate threat to Iranian, Saudi, or UAE production.

Historically, when Iran–Israel tensions ease, oil prices fall sharply toward pre-conflict levels.

For example, after an earlier Iran–Israel ceasefire, Brent dropped 6% to ~$67/bbl and WTI fell 6% to ~$64.37/bbl, returning to levels seen before the conflict.

Analysts projected Brent could stabilise "near $70/bbl" if the ceasefire held.

However, today's prices show modest gains in WTI and Brent (+0.9% each), suggesting the market is still processing the situation and may be waiting for confirmation that the ceasefire is durable.

Murban's slight decline (–0.41%) could reflect Middle East-specific relief, as it's more sensitive to regional stability.

FACT file

Energy analysts pointed to a number of factors in projecting the crude oil rates in the short term:

• Iran's halt of offensive operations reduces immediate war risk, supporting supply stability and lowering the geopolitical risk premium.

• If the ceasefire holds, analysts expect prices to normalise toward $70–$75/bbl for Brent and WTI over the coming days.

• Murban's slight decline may signal early regional relief, but the market will remain cautious until the ceasefire is verified as sustainable.