Oil follows geopolitics - the sun does not

Whenever conflict erupts somewhere in the world, energy markets react with remarkable speed. Oil prices move within hours. Shipping routes suddenly dominate strategic discussions. Governments quietly review reserves, supply chains and vulnerabilities.

Markets rediscover, almost overnight, a reality they often ignore in quieter times: energy remains deeply entangled with geopolitics.

This pattern is hardly new. From the oil crises of the 1970s to the supply disruptions of more recent decades, moments of geopolitical tension have repeatedly reminded the world that energy flows rarely exist outside the turbulence of international politics.

Pipelines cross borders. Tankers pass through narrow maritime chokepoints. A single incident in one region can send ripples through markets thousands of kilometres away.

Yet over the past decade, a different narrative has increasingly shaped the global energy conversation: the promise of renewable power. Solar panels across deserts. Wind farms along coastlines. It is a future where energy systems are less vulnerable to the political fragility that often accompanies fossil fuel supply chains.

It is a compelling vision. And in many ways, it is already becoming reality.

The UAE, for example, has invested heavily in building a diversified energy system over the past decade. The country is currently investing AED 189 billion in major clean energy projects and infrastructure to support its Net Zero 2050 Strategy and maintain a reliable and advanced electricity grid.

By 2024, the UAE had surpassed 12 gigawatts of clean energy capacity. With 6.8 GW of renewables and 5.6 GW of nuclear power, clean sources now account for more than 30 percent of the country’s electricity generation.

These investments reflect a broader recognition that the future of energy security lies not in replacing one source with another, but in building diversified systems capable of absorbing shocks.

But moments of geopolitical tension tend to remind policymakers of a quieter and more complicated truth. Energy systems do not operate only within markets or political strategies. They also operate within the limits imposed by nature.

Oil prices can jump overnight. Gas shipments can be redirected. Strategic reserves can be released.

The sun, however, has never followed a geopolitical calendar. Nor has the wind ever adjusted its strength to the anxieties of energy traders.

This does not diminish the importance of renewable energy. Solar and wind power represent essential pillars of the long-term transition toward cleaner and more sustainable energy systems. But they also illustrate why resilience must sit at the centre of modern energy policy.

Modern economies depend on uninterrupted electricity. Hospitals, airports, data centres, digital networks and increasingly artificial intelligence infrastructure all rely on energy systems that must function continuously. For this reason, energy security today is defined not only by access to resources, but by the resilience of the systems that deliver them.

Resilience comes from diversification. Solar power is expanding rapidly, nuclear energy provides stable baseload electricity in countries such as the UAE, and natural gas continues to offer flexible generation in many markets. At the same time, stronger grids, energy storage and digital monitoring systems are becoming just as important as generation itself.

Together, these elements create energy systems capable of absorbing shocks - whether those shocks originate in geopolitics or in weather patterns.

Critics occasionally argue that renewable infrastructure itself could be vulnerable in times of conflict. Solar installations, like pipelines, refineries or transmission lines, are not immune to disruption. Global disruptions - both natural and geopolitical - combined with stretched supply chains and supply-demand imbalances are already delaying projects and increasing costs. Industry estimates suggest that these pressures can erode hundreds of millions of euros in value per gigawatt of capacity over a project’s lifetime, according to Kearns.

This is why the response is increasingly local. In Egypt, we have broken ground in 2025 - in partnership with Egyptian, Chinese and Bahraini stakeholders - on a $210 million solar manufacturing hub in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. The project includes two facilities with a combined annual capacity of 2GW of solar cells and 2GW of solar modules. While the modules facility will support domestic and regional demand across the Middle East and Africa, the solar cells plant is designed primarily for export. The objective is clear: to reduce exposure to external disruptions and bring part of the energy transition closer to the markets it serves.

In addition to that, Energy security has never been about invulnerability. It has always been about resilience.

Centralised energy facilities can represent single points of failure. Distributed renewable systems, by contrast, often spread generation across multiple locations, reducing the likelihood that a single disruption could disable an entire supply.

The energy transition, therefore, presents not only an environmental challenge, but a strategic one. The task ahead is not simply to replace one form of energy with another. It is to build systems capable of functioning reliably within a world that remains politically unpredictable and environmentally variable.

Recent geopolitical tensions have once again reminded markets how quickly energy concerns can return to the centre of global debate. But they have also highlighted a deeper reality.

The future of energy will not be shaped solely by politics or markets. It will also be shaped by forces far older and far less negotiable.

Oil markets may still follow geopolitics. The sun does not.

Building energy systems capable of thriving within that reality may prove one of the most important strategic challenges of the decades ahead.

- The writer is Managing Director and CEO of Global South Utilities (GSU)